Championship· Regular Season - 25· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.35 | 0.49–2.21 | 0.24–2.45 | 2.680.35–5.01 |
| Shots on target | 4.58 | 2.72–6.43 | 2.22–6.93 | 4.15 | 2.44–5.85 | 1.97–6.32 | 8.734.19–13.26 |
| Total shots | 13.90 | 10.20–17.60 | 9.16–18.63 | 12.15 | 8.77–15.53 | 7.84–16.46 | 26.0517.00–35.09 |
| Shots in box | 9.30 | 6.78–11.81 | 5.92–12.68 | 7.56 | 5.26–9.87 | 4.47–10.66 | 16.8610.38–23.34 |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 | 2.28–5.45 | 1.74–5.98 | 3.31 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.41–5.21 | 7.173.15–11.19 |
| Corners | 5.55 | 3.34–7.75 | 2.75–8.35 | 4.92 | 2.94–6.89 | 2.40–7.43 | 10.465.15–15.78 |
| Possession % | 47.14 | 40.82–53.46 | 39.23–55.05 | 51.95 | 45.63–58.27 | 44.04–59.87 | — |
| Passes | 386 | 321–451 | 303–469 | 468 | 403–532 | 386–550 | 854689–1019 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.60 | 64.39–72.82 | 63.08–74.12 | 74.47 | 69.97–78.98 | 68.64–80.31 | — |
| Fouls | 12.43 | 9.57–15.29 | 8.69–16.17 | 9.53 | 6.58–12.47 | 5.67–13.39 | 21.9614.35–29.56 |
| Offsides | 1.58 | 0.37–2.79 | 0.03–3.14 | 1.69 | 0.53–2.85 | 0.20–3.19 | 3.270.22–6.32 |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 | 0.95–3.06 | 0.68–3.33 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.891.16–6.63 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.00 | 1.58–4.41 | 1.20–4.80 | 2.48 | 0.93–4.04 | 0.50–4.47 | 5.481.69–9.27 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
37%
26%
37%
Shots on target
49%
14%
38%
Total shots
60%
33%
Shots in box
62%
29%
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
70%
23%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+