Championship· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 0.39–2.32 | 0.13–2.58 | 1.51 | 0.65–2.37 | 0.41–2.62 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 5.30 | 3.44–7.15 | 2.94–7.65 | 4.40 | 2.69–6.10 | 2.22–6.57 | 9.695.16–14.22 |
| Total shots | 14.43 | 10.73–18.13 | 9.70–19.16 | 12.36 | 8.98–15.73 | 8.05–16.67 | 26.7917.74–35.83 |
| Shots in box | 8.67 | 6.15–11.18 | 5.28–12.05 | 8.90 | 6.60–11.20 | 5.80–12.00 | 17.5611.08–24.04 |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 | 2.13–5.29 | 1.59–5.83 | 3.45 | 2.03–4.86 | 1.55–5.35 | 7.163.14–11.18 |
| Corners | 5.22 | 3.02–7.43 | 2.42–8.02 | 5.09 | 3.11–7.06 | 2.57–7.60 | 10.314.99–15.63 |
| Possession % | 52.25 | 45.93–58.57 | 44.34–60.17 | 47.39 | 41.07–53.71 | 39.48–55.31 | — |
| Passes | 442 | 377–508 | 359–525 | 387 | 322–451 | 305–469 | 829664–994 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.37 | 71.16–79.59 | 69.86–80.89 | 71.83 | 67.32–76.33 | 65.99–77.66 | — |
| Fouls | 12.30 | 9.45–15.16 | 8.56–16.05 | 11.87 | 8.92–14.81 | 8.00–15.73 | 24.1716.56–31.78 |
| Offsides | 2.66 | 1.45–3.86 | 1.10–4.21 | 1.96 | 0.80–3.12 | 0.46–3.45 | 4.611.57–7.66 |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 | 0.93–3.04 | 0.66–3.31 | 2.09 | 0.96–3.21 | 0.67–3.50 | 4.071.33–6.81 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.72 | 1.30–4.13 | 0.91–4.52 | 3.02 | 1.47–4.58 | 1.04–5.01 | 5.741.95–9.53 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
25%
41%
Shots on target
55%
33%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
43%
47%
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
Corners
45%
42%
Fouls
49%
42%
Offsides
53%
18%
28%
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+