Championship· Regular Season - 30· · Ashton Gate Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 | 0.23–2.16 | 0.00–2.42 | 1.56 | 0.70–2.42 | 0.45–2.66 | 2.750.42–5.08 |
| Shots on target | 4.09 | 2.24–5.95 | 1.74–6.45 | 5.06 | 3.35–6.77 | 2.88–7.23 | 9.154.62–13.68 |
| Total shots | 12.57 | 8.87–16.27 | 7.83–17.30 | 14.09 | 10.72–17.47 | 9.79–18.40 | 26.6617.62–35.71 |
| Shots in box | 8.60 | 6.08–11.11 | 5.21–11.98 | 9.67 | 7.37–11.97 | 6.57–12.77 | 18.2711.79–24.74 |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 | 1.79–4.95 | 1.25–5.49 | 4.09 | 2.68–5.51 | 2.19–5.99 | 7.463.44–11.48 |
| Corners | 4.81 | 2.60–7.01 | 2.00–7.61 | 5.44 | 3.46–7.42 | 2.92–7.95 | 10.244.93–15.56 |
| Possession % | 43.57 | 37.25–49.89 | 35.66–51.48 | 57.14 | 50.82–63.46 | 49.22–65.06 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 341–471 | 323–489 | 530 | 466–595 | 448–612 | 936771–1101 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.81 | 65.59–74.03 | 64.29–75.33 | 75.94 | 71.43–80.44 | 70.10–81.77 | — |
| Fouls | 10.43 | 7.57–13.29 | 6.69–14.17 | 10.12 | 7.17–13.06 | 6.25–13.98 | 20.5512.94–28.15 |
| Offsides | 1.87 | 0.66–3.08 | 0.32–3.43 | 1.94 | 0.77–3.10 | 0.44–3.43 | 3.810.76–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.57–2.68 | 0.29–2.95 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 3.470.74–6.21 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.72 |
| GK saves | 3.19 | 1.78–4.61 | 1.39–4.99 | 2.64 | 1.09–4.20 | 0.66–4.63 | 5.842.05–9.62 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
29%
25%
46%
Shots on target
31%
56%
Total shots
35%
58%
Shots in box
36%
55%
Blocked shots
33%
14%
53%
Corners
36%
52%
Fouls
48%
43%
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
51%
17%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+