Championship· Regular Season - 33· · Toughsheet Community Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 | 0.17–2.10 | 0.00–2.36 | 2.29 | 1.43–3.15 | 1.18–3.39 | 3.421.09–5.75 |
| Shots on target | 4.41 | 2.55–6.26 | 2.05–6.76 | 5.81 | 4.10–7.52 | 3.63–7.98 | 10.225.69–14.75 |
| Total shots | 12.12 | 8.42–15.82 | 7.39–16.85 | 14.81 | 11.43–18.19 | 10.50–19.12 | 26.9317.89–35.98 |
| Shots in box | 8.08 | 5.56–10.60 | 4.70–11.46 | 10.52 | 8.22–12.82 | 7.42–13.62 | 18.6012.12–25.08 |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 | 1.53–4.70 | 1.00–5.24 | 4.21 | 2.79–5.62 | 2.31–6.11 | 7.333.31–11.35 |
| Corners | 4.90 | 2.70–7.11 | 2.10–7.70 | 5.90 | 3.92–7.87 | 3.38–8.41 | 10.805.48–16.11 |
| Possession % | 44.15 | 37.84–50.47 | 36.24–52.07 | 55.34 | 49.02–61.66 | 47.43–63.26 | — |
| Passes | 350 | 285–415 | 267–433 | 453 | 389–518 | 371–535 | 803638–968 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.00 | 64.79–73.22 | 63.49–74.52 | 74.02 | 69.52–78.53 | 68.19–79.86 | — |
| Fouls | 11.42 | 8.56–14.27 | 7.67–15.16 | 10.81 | 7.87–13.76 | 6.95–14.67 | 22.2314.62–29.83 |
| Offsides | 2.46 | 1.25–3.67 | 0.91–4.02 | 3.33 | 2.16–4.49 | 1.83–4.82 | 5.792.74–8.84 |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 | 1.03–3.14 | 0.75–3.41 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 4.001.26–6.74 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.62 | 2.20–5.03 | 1.82–5.42 | 2.98 | 1.42–4.53 | 0.99–4.96 | 6.592.81–10.38 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
18%
19%
63%
Shots on target
27%
61%
Total shots
27%
66%
Shots in box
25%
67%
Blocked shots
28%
14%
58%
Corners
32%
56%
Fouls
51%
41%
Offsides
28%
16%
56%
Yellow cards
43%
21%
37%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
52%
15%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+