Championship· Regular Season - 33· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.11 | 1.15–3.07 | 0.89–3.33 | 0.79 | 0.00–1.65 | 0.00–1.90 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 5.65 | 3.79–7.51 | 3.29–8.00 | 3.48 | 1.78–5.19 | 1.31–5.66 | 9.134.60–13.66 |
| Total shots | 16.32 | 12.62–20.03 | 11.59–21.06 | 10.91 | 7.53–14.28 | 6.60–15.21 | 27.2318.19–36.27 |
| Shots in box | 11.13 | 8.61–13.65 | 7.75–14.51 | 6.56 | 4.26–8.86 | 3.46–9.66 | 17.6911.21–24.17 |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 | 3.26–6.43 | 2.73–6.97 | 2.73 | 1.32–4.15 | 0.83–4.63 | 7.583.56–11.60 |
| Corners | 6.09 | 3.89–8.30 | 3.29–8.89 | 3.58 | 1.60–5.55 | 1.06–6.09 | 9.674.35–14.98 |
| Possession % | 65.90 | 59.58–72.22 | 57.99–73.81 | 33.31 | 26.99–39.63 | 25.40–41.23 | — |
| Passes | 635 | 570–700 | 552–718 | 320 | 256–385 | 238–403 | 955790–1121 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.82 | 78.60–87.03 | 77.30–88.34 | 66.84 | 62.34–71.35 | 61.01–72.68 | — |
| Fouls | 9.09 | 6.23–11.95 | 5.35–12.83 | 12.62 | 9.68–15.57 | 8.76–16.48 | 21.7114.10–29.32 |
| Offsides | 1.50 | 0.29–2.71 | 0.00–3.05 | 2.27 | 1.11–3.43 | 0.77–3.76 | 3.770.72–6.82 |
| Yellow cards | 1.26 | 0.20–2.31 | 0.00–2.58 | 2.04 | 0.92–3.16 | 0.63–3.45 | 3.300.56–6.04 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.18 | 0.76–3.59 | 0.37–3.98 | 3.61 | 2.06–5.16 | 1.62–5.60 | 5.792.00–9.58 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
68%
19%
Shots on target
71%
19%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
72%
17%
Corners
74%
16%
Fouls
19%
74%
Offsides
25%
20%
55%
Yellow cards
23%
21%
56%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+