Championship· Regular Season - 34· · The Den· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 | 0.43–2.35 | 0.17–2.61 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.450.12–4.78 |
| Shots on target | 4.95 | 3.09–6.80 | 2.59–7.30 | 3.75 | 2.04–5.46 | 1.57–5.93 | 8.704.16–13.23 |
| Total shots | 14.62 | 10.92–18.33 | 9.89–19.36 | 11.74 | 8.36–15.12 | 7.43–16.05 | 26.3617.32–35.41 |
| Shots in box | 9.46 | 6.94–11.97 | 6.08–12.84 | 7.25 | 4.95–9.56 | 4.16–10.35 | 16.7110.23–23.19 |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 | 1.92–5.09 | 1.39–5.63 | 3.62 | 2.21–5.04 | 1.72–5.52 | 7.133.11–11.15 |
| Corners | 5.94 | 3.73–8.14 | 3.14–8.74 | 4.79 | 2.81–6.76 | 2.27–7.30 | 10.725.41–16.04 |
| Possession % | 50.92 | 44.60–57.24 | 43.01–58.84 | 47.61 | 41.29–53.93 | 39.70–55.53 | — |
| Passes | 369 | 303–434 | 286–451 | 343 | 278–408 | 261–425 | 712546–877 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.85 | 59.63–68.06 | 58.33–69.36 | 63.85 | 59.35–68.36 | 58.02–69.69 | — |
| Fouls | 11.10 | 8.24–13.96 | 7.36–14.84 | 11.90 | 8.95–14.84 | 8.04–15.76 | 23.0015.39–30.60 |
| Offsides | 2.26 | 1.05–3.47 | 0.71–3.81 | 1.30 | 0.14–2.47 | 0.00–2.80 | 3.560.52–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.30 | 0.24–2.35 | 0.00–2.63 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.190.45–5.92 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.02–3.85 | 0.63–4.24 | 2.90 | 1.35–4.45 | 0.91–4.89 | 5.331.54–9.12 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
27%
29%
Shots on target
59%
28%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
66%
25%
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
Corners
58%
31%
Fouls
39%
52%
Offsides
59%
20%
21%
Yellow cards
26%
22%
51%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
33%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+