Championship· Regular Season - 35· · Turf Moor· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 | 0.29–2.22 | 0.03–2.48 | 1.57 | 0.71–2.42 | 0.46–2.67 | 2.820.49–5.15 |
| Shots on target | 4.66 | 2.80–6.52 | 2.31–7.02 | 4.49 | 2.78–6.20 | 2.31–6.66 | 9.154.62–13.68 |
| Total shots | 12.56 | 8.85–16.26 | 7.82–17.29 | 13.36 | 9.98–16.74 | 9.05–17.67 | 25.9116.87–34.96 |
| Shots in box | 7.73 | 5.22–10.25 | 4.35–11.11 | 9.47 | 7.17–11.77 | 6.37–12.57 | 17.2010.73–23.68 |
| Blocked shots | 3.45 | 1.86–5.03 | 1.33–5.56 | 3.36 | 1.95–4.78 | 1.46–5.26 | 6.812.79–10.83 |
| Corners | 4.61 | 2.41–6.82 | 1.81–7.42 | 5.03 | 3.06–7.01 | 2.52–7.55 | 9.654.33–14.96 |
| Possession % | 43.74 | 37.42–50.06 | 35.83–51.66 | 56.89 | 50.57–63.21 | 48.98–64.81 | — |
| Passes | 418 | 352–483 | 335–500 | 545 | 480–610 | 463–627 | 963797–1128 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.01 | 63.79–72.22 | 62.49–73.52 | 73.68 | 69.17–78.19 | 67.84–79.52 | — |
| Fouls | 10.96 | 8.10–13.82 | 7.22–14.70 | 11.18 | 8.24–14.13 | 7.32–15.05 | 22.1414.54–29.75 |
| Offsides | 1.95 | 0.74–3.16 | 0.39–3.50 | 2.07 | 0.91–3.24 | 0.58–3.57 | 4.020.97–7.07 |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 | 0.79–2.90 | 0.52–3.17 | 1.86 | 0.74–2.98 | 0.45–3.27 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.28 | 1.87–4.70 | 1.48–5.09 | 2.71 | 1.16–4.26 | 0.73–4.70 | 6.002.21–9.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
25%
45%
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
Total shots
40%
52%
Shots in box
29%
62%
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
Corners
38%
49%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+