Championship· Regular Season - 36· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 | 0.00–1.87 | 0.00–2.13 | 2.10 | 1.24–2.96 | 1.00–3.21 | 3.010.69–5.34 |
| Shots on target | 3.26 | 1.41–5.12 | 0.91–5.62 | 5.66 | 3.96–7.37 | 3.49–7.84 | 8.924.39–13.45 |
| Total shots | 11.28 | 7.58–14.99 | 6.55–16.02 | 16.35 | 12.97–19.73 | 12.04–20.66 | 27.6418.59–36.68 |
| Shots in box | 7.18 | 4.66–9.69 | 3.80–10.56 | 11.25 | 8.95–13.55 | 8.15–14.35 | 18.4311.95–24.91 |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 | 1.37–4.54 | 0.84–5.08 | 4.68 | 3.26–6.09 | 2.78–6.58 | 7.643.62–11.65 |
| Corners | 4.05 | 1.84–6.25 | 1.25–6.85 | 6.11 | 4.13–8.09 | 3.59–8.62 | 10.154.84–15.47 |
| Possession % | 34.07 | 27.76–40.39 | 26.16–41.99 | 64.58 | 58.26–70.89 | 56.66–72.49 | — |
| Passes | 306 | 240–371 | 223–389 | 573 | 508–637 | 491–655 | 879714–1044 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.32 | 59.10–67.53 | 57.80–68.83 | 77.62 | 73.11–82.13 | 71.78–83.46 | — |
| Fouls | 11.64 | 8.78–14.49 | 7.89–15.38 | 9.95 | 7.01–12.90 | 6.09–13.82 | 21.5913.99–29.20 |
| Offsides | 2.06 | 0.85–3.27 | 0.50–3.61 | 1.65 | 0.49–2.81 | 0.15–3.14 | 3.710.66–6.76 |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 | 0.93–3.04 | 0.65–3.31 | 1.63 | 0.51–2.75 | 0.22–3.04 | 3.620.88–6.35 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.31 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.50–5.11 | 2.31 | 0.75–3.86 | 0.32–4.29 | 5.611.82–9.40 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
15%
20%
65%
Shots on target
16%
74%
Total shots
14%
81%
Shots in box
14%
80%
Blocked shots
21%
67%
Corners
21%
69%
Fouls
60%
32%
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
Yellow cards
46%
22%
32%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
58%
16%
26%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+