Championship· Regular Season - 36· · Deepdale· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 | 0.66–2.59 | 0.40–2.85 | 1.23 | 0.37–2.09 | 0.13–2.34 | 2.860.53–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 4.75 | 2.90–6.61 | 2.40–7.11 | 4.25 | 2.55–5.96 | 2.08–6.43 | 9.014.48–13.54 |
| Total shots | 13.70 | 10.00–17.41 | 8.97–18.44 | 12.32 | 8.94–15.69 | 8.01–16.63 | 26.0216.98–35.06 |
| Shots in box | 10.24 | 7.72–12.75 | 6.86–13.62 | 7.27 | 4.96–9.57 | 4.17–10.36 | 17.5011.02–23.98 |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 | 2.31–5.48 | 1.78–6.02 | 3.01 | 1.59–4.42 | 1.11–4.91 | 6.912.89–10.92 |
| Corners | 5.38 | 3.17–7.59 | 2.58–8.18 | 4.98 | 3.00–6.96 | 2.47–7.50 | 10.365.04–15.68 |
| Possession % | 48.79 | 42.47–55.11 | 40.88–56.70 | 50.51 | 44.19–56.83 | 42.59–58.42 | — |
| Passes | 354 | 288–419 | 271–437 | 398 | 333–462 | 316–480 | 752586–917 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.18 | 60.97–69.40 | 59.67–70.70 | 68.68 | 64.17–73.19 | 62.84–74.52 | — |
| Fouls | 11.74 | 8.88–14.60 | 8.00–15.48 | 10.99 | 8.05–13.94 | 7.13–14.85 | 22.7315.13–30.34 |
| Offsides | 2.53 | 1.32–3.74 | 0.98–4.08 | 2.22 | 1.06–3.38 | 0.72–3.71 | 4.751.70–7.80 |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 | 0.41–2.52 | 0.14–2.79 | 1.68 | 0.56–2.80 | 0.27–3.09 | 3.140.41–5.88 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.83 | 1.41–4.24 | 1.02–4.63 | 3.08 | 1.53–4.64 | 1.10–5.07 | 5.912.12–9.70 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
24%
29%
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
Total shots
57%
36%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
30%
Corners
49%
39%
Fouls
52%
40%
Offsides
46%
19%
35%
Yellow cards
34%
24%
43%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
38%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+