Championship· Regular Season - 36· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 | 0.60–2.52 | 0.34–2.78 | 1.05 | 0.19–1.91 | 0.00–2.16 | 2.610.29–4.94 |
| Shots on target | 5.23 | 3.37–7.09 | 2.88–7.59 | 4.32 | 2.62–6.03 | 2.15–6.50 | 9.555.02–14.08 |
| Total shots | 14.52 | 10.82–18.23 | 9.79–19.26 | 12.85 | 9.48–16.23 | 8.54–17.16 | 27.3818.33–36.42 |
| Shots in box | 9.62 | 7.10–12.13 | 6.24–13.00 | 7.67 | 5.37–9.97 | 4.57–10.77 | 17.2910.81–23.76 |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 | 3.03–6.19 | 2.49–6.73 | 3.04 | 1.62–4.45 | 1.14–4.94 | 7.653.63–11.67 |
| Corners | 5.18 | 2.97–7.38 | 2.38–7.98 | 4.18 | 2.21–6.16 | 1.67–6.70 | 9.364.05–14.68 |
| Possession % | 58.23 | 51.91–64.54 | 50.31–66.14 | 42.40 | 36.08–48.71 | 34.48–50.31 | — |
| Passes | 549 | 484–614 | 466–632 | 378 | 313–442 | 296–460 | 927762–1092 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.45 | 72.24–80.67 | 70.94–81.97 | 69.36 | 64.85–73.87 | 63.52–75.20 | — |
| Fouls | 9.91 | 7.05–12.76 | 6.16–13.65 | 12.21 | 9.27–15.16 | 8.35–16.08 | 22.1214.52–29.73 |
| Offsides | 1.80 | 0.59–3.01 | 0.25–3.35 | 2.43 | 1.27–3.60 | 0.94–3.93 | 4.231.19–7.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 | 0.50–2.61 | 0.23–2.88 | 1.99 | 0.87–3.11 | 0.58–3.40 | 3.550.81–6.29 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.41 | 0.99–3.82 | 0.60–4.21 | 3.22 | 1.67–4.77 | 1.23–5.21 | 5.631.84–9.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
25%
26%
Shots on target
55%
32%
Total shots
59%
34%
Shots in box
64%
28%
Blocked shots
65%
22%
Corners
56%
31%
Fouls
27%
65%
Offsides
29%
19%
52%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+