Championship· Regular Season - 37· · Ashton Gate Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 | 0.27–2.20 | 0.01–2.46 | 1.39 | 0.53–2.25 | 0.28–2.49 | 2.620.29–4.95 |
| Shots on target | 4.37 | 2.51–6.22 | 2.01–6.72 | 4.12 | 2.41–5.83 | 1.94–6.29 | 8.483.95–13.01 |
| Total shots | 11.81 | 8.11–15.52 | 7.08–16.55 | 12.37 | 8.99–15.74 | 8.06–16.68 | 24.1815.14–33.22 |
| Shots in box | 8.26 | 5.74–10.78 | 4.88–11.64 | 8.14 | 5.84–10.44 | 5.05–11.24 | 16.409.92–22.88 |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 | 1.72–4.89 | 1.19–5.42 | 3.29 | 1.88–4.71 | 1.39–5.19 | 6.602.58–10.62 |
| Corners | 4.61 | 2.41–6.82 | 1.81–7.41 | 4.78 | 2.80–6.75 | 2.26–7.29 | 9.394.07–14.70 |
| Possession % | 43.43 | 37.12–49.75 | 35.52–51.35 | 55.20 | 48.88–61.52 | 47.29–63.12 | — |
| Passes | 411 | 346–476 | 328–494 | 534 | 469–598 | 452–616 | 945780–1110 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.06 | 64.84–73.27 | 63.54–74.57 | 74.20 | 69.69–78.71 | 68.36–80.04 | — |
| Fouls | 11.09 | 8.23–13.94 | 7.34–14.83 | 11.22 | 8.28–14.17 | 7.36–15.09 | 22.3114.70–29.91 |
| Offsides | 2.07 | 0.86–3.28 | 0.51–3.62 | 1.69 | 0.52–2.85 | 0.19–3.18 | 3.750.70–6.80 |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 | 0.69–2.80 | 0.42–3.08 | 1.95 | 0.83–3.07 | 0.54–3.36 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.080.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.23–4.05 | 0.84–4.44 | 2.68 | 1.13–4.24 | 0.70–4.67 | 5.321.53–9.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
26%
41%
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
Total shots
41%
50%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
Corners
41%
13%
45%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+