Championship· Regular Season - 37· · Riverside Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 | 0.97–2.90 | 0.71–3.16 | 1.33 | 0.47–2.19 | 0.22–2.43 | 3.260.93–5.59 |
| Shots on target | 6.00 | 4.14–7.85 | 3.64–8.35 | 3.94 | 2.23–5.65 | 1.76–6.11 | 9.945.41–14.47 |
| Total shots | 17.51 | 13.81–21.22 | 12.78–22.25 | 11.40 | 8.02–14.78 | 7.09–15.71 | 28.9119.87–37.96 |
| Shots in box | 12.35 | 9.83–14.86 | 8.97–15.73 | 7.79 | 5.49–10.09 | 4.69–10.88 | 20.1313.65–26.61 |
| Blocked shots | 5.38 | 3.79–6.96 | 3.26–7.50 | 3.11 | 1.69–4.52 | 1.21–5.01 | 8.484.47–12.50 |
| Corners | 5.95 | 3.75–8.16 | 3.15–8.75 | 4.52 | 2.55–6.50 | 2.01–7.04 | 10.485.16–15.79 |
| Possession % | 54.84 | 48.53–61.16 | 46.93–62.76 | 46.44 | 40.12–52.76 | 38.52–54.35 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 448–579 | 431–597 | 413 | 348–477 | 331–495 | 927761–1092 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.99 | 74.77–83.21 | 73.47–84.51 | 75.52 | 71.01–80.03 | 69.68–81.36 | — |
| Fouls | 11.09 | 8.23–13.95 | 7.35–14.83 | 10.39 | 7.45–13.34 | 6.53–14.26 | 21.4813.88–29.09 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.04 | 0.28–3.38 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.74 | 0.08–3.07 | 3.410.36–6.46 |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 | 0.47–2.58 | 0.20–2.86 | 1.90 | 0.78–3.02 | 0.49–3.31 | 3.430.69–6.17 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.39 | 0.97–3.80 | 0.58–4.19 | 3.61 | 2.05–5.16 | 1.62–5.59 | 6.002.21–9.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
22%
26%
Shots on target
69%
21%
Total shots
85%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
73%
17%
Corners
61%
27%
Fouls
52%
40%
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+