Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 | 1.03–2.96 | 0.77–3.22 | 0.97 | 0.12–1.83 | 0.00–2.08 | 2.970.64–5.30 |
| Shots on target | 6.12 | 4.26–7.98 | 3.77–8.48 | 3.42 | 1.71–5.13 | 1.24–5.60 | 9.545.01–14.07 |
| Total shots | 17.39 | 13.69–21.09 | 12.66–22.12 | 10.23 | 6.85–13.61 | 5.92–14.54 | 27.6218.58–36.66 |
| Shots in box | 10.42 | 7.90–12.93 | 7.04–13.80 | 6.64 | 4.34–8.94 | 3.54–9.74 | 17.0510.58–23.53 |
| Blocked shots | 4.71 | 3.13–6.30 | 2.59–6.83 | 2.76 | 1.34–4.17 | 0.86–4.66 | 7.473.45–11.49 |
| Corners | 6.88 | 4.68–9.09 | 4.08–9.68 | 4.01 | 2.03–5.99 | 1.50–6.53 | 10.895.58–16.21 |
| Possession % | 60.23 | 53.91–66.54 | 52.31–68.14 | 39.29 | 32.97–45.61 | 31.37–47.20 | — |
| Passes | 510 | 445–575 | 427–593 | 311 | 247–376 | 229–393 | 821656–986 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.08 | 68.87–77.30 | 67.56–78.60 | 64.99 | 60.48–69.50 | 59.15–70.83 | — |
| Fouls | 9.62 | 6.76–12.47 | 5.88–13.36 | 12.08 | 9.13–15.02 | 8.21–15.94 | 21.6914.09–29.30 |
| Offsides | 2.08 | 0.87–3.29 | 0.53–3.64 | 2.94 | 1.77–4.10 | 1.44–4.43 | 5.021.97–8.07 |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 | 0.28–2.39 | 0.00–2.66 | 2.19 | 1.07–3.31 | 0.78–3.60 | 3.520.79–6.26 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.49–4.10 | 3.57 | 2.02–5.12 | 1.59–5.56 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
61%
21%
18%
Shots on target
76%
15%
Total shots
90%
Shots in box
79%
15%
Blocked shots
70%
18%
Corners
76%
15%
Fouls
26%
66%
Offsides
27%
17%
56%
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+