Championship· Regular Season - 37· · Bramall Lane· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 | 0.14–2.07 | 0.00–2.33 | 1.61 | 0.75–2.47 | 0.50–2.72 | 2.720.39–5.04 |
| Shots on target | 3.62 | 1.77–5.48 | 1.27–5.98 | 4.90 | 3.19–6.61 | 2.73–7.08 | 8.523.99–13.06 |
| Total shots | 12.01 | 8.31–15.72 | 7.28–16.75 | 13.77 | 10.39–17.15 | 9.46–18.08 | 25.7816.74–34.82 |
| Shots in box | 8.07 | 5.56–10.59 | 4.69–11.45 | 8.76 | 6.46–11.06 | 5.66–11.85 | 16.8310.35–23.31 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.92–5.08 | 1.38–5.62 | 3.62 | 2.21–5.04 | 1.72–5.52 | 7.123.10–11.14 |
| Corners | 4.22 | 2.01–6.42 | 1.42–7.02 | 5.01 | 3.03–6.99 | 2.50–7.53 | 9.233.91–14.55 |
| Possession % | 49.21 | 42.89–55.52 | 41.29–57.12 | 50.49 | 44.17–56.81 | 42.57–58.40 | — |
| Passes | 462 | 396–527 | 379–545 | 451 | 387–516 | 369–534 | 913748–1078 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.01 | 66.80–75.23 | 65.50–76.53 | 70.12 | 65.61–74.62 | 64.28–75.96 | — |
| Fouls | 11.42 | 8.56–14.27 | 7.67–15.16 | 10.78 | 7.84–13.73 | 6.92–14.64 | 22.2014.59–29.80 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.30 | 1.99 | 0.83–3.16 | 0.50–3.49 | 3.740.69–6.79 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.67–2.78 | 0.39–3.05 | 1.88 | 0.76–3.00 | 0.47–3.29 | 3.600.86–6.34 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.99–4.59 | 2.61 | 1.06–4.17 | 0.63–4.60 | 5.401.61–9.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
25%
49%
Shots on target
27%
60%
Total shots
33%
60%
Shots in box
39%
52%
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
Corners
33%
54%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
44%
18%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+