Championship· Regular Season - 38· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 | 0.01–1.93 | 0.00–2.19 | 1.75 | 0.89–2.61 | 0.64–2.85 | 2.720.39–5.05 |
| Shots on target | 3.59 | 1.73–5.44 | 1.23–5.94 | 5.77 | 4.06–7.47 | 3.59–7.94 | 9.354.82–13.88 |
| Total shots | 11.55 | 7.85–15.26 | 6.82–16.29 | 16.12 | 12.74–19.50 | 11.81–20.43 | 27.6718.63–36.72 |
| Shots in box | 7.25 | 4.74–9.77 | 3.87–10.63 | 10.38 | 8.08–12.68 | 7.28–13.47 | 17.6311.15–24.11 |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 | 1.38–4.55 | 0.85–5.08 | 4.54 | 3.13–5.96 | 2.64–6.44 | 7.503.49–11.52 |
| Corners | 4.80 | 2.59–7.00 | 2.00–7.60 | 6.05 | 4.07–8.02 | 3.53–8.56 | 10.845.53–16.16 |
| Possession % | 37.64 | 31.33–43.96 | 29.73–45.56 | 62.92 | 56.60–69.24 | 55.01–70.84 | — |
| Passes | 322 | 257–388 | 239–405 | 547 | 482–611 | 465–629 | 869704–1034 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.71 | 60.50–68.93 | 59.20–70.23 | 76.35 | 71.84–80.85 | 70.51–82.18 | — |
| Fouls | 11.54 | 8.68–14.39 | 7.79–15.28 | 9.66 | 6.72–12.61 | 5.80–13.53 | 21.2013.59–28.80 |
| Offsides | 1.99 | 0.78–3.20 | 0.44–3.55 | 1.75 | 0.58–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.740.69–6.79 |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 | 0.97–3.08 | 0.70–3.35 | 1.48 | 0.36–2.60 | 0.07–2.89 | 3.500.76–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.52 | 2.10–4.93 | 1.71–5.32 | 2.59 | 1.03–4.14 | 0.60–4.57 | 6.102.31–9.89 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
21%
24%
56%
Shots on target
19%
71%
Total shots
17%
78%
Shots in box
19%
73%
Blocked shots
22%
65%
Corners
30%
59%
Fouls
62%
30%
Offsides
44%
21%
34%
Yellow cards
50%
21%
28%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+