Championship· Regular Season - 38· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 0.34–2.26 | 0.08–2.52 | 1.24 | 0.38–2.10 | 0.13–2.34 | 2.540.21–4.87 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.16–5.87 | 1.66–6.37 | 4.32 | 2.62–6.03 | 2.15–6.50 | 8.343.81–12.87 |
| Total shots | 12.61 | 8.91–16.31 | 7.88–17.34 | 14.36 | 10.98–17.74 | 10.05–18.67 | 26.9717.92–36.01 |
| Shots in box | 8.43 | 5.91–10.94 | 5.05–11.81 | 8.05 | 5.75–10.35 | 4.95–11.15 | 16.4710.00–22.95 |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 | 2.43–5.60 | 1.90–6.14 | 3.39 | 1.98–4.81 | 1.49–5.29 | 7.413.39–11.43 |
| Corners | 4.78 | 2.58–6.99 | 1.98–7.58 | 4.80 | 2.83–6.78 | 2.29–7.32 | 9.594.27–14.90 |
| Possession % | 50.25 | 43.93–56.57 | 42.34–58.17 | 51.13 | 44.81–57.45 | 43.21–59.04 | — |
| Passes | 421 | 356–487 | 338–504 | 427 | 362–491 | 345–509 | 848683–1013 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.34 | 63.13–71.56 | 61.83–72.86 | 71.23 | 66.73–75.74 | 65.40–77.07 | — |
| Fouls | 9.99 | 7.14–12.85 | 6.25–13.74 | 11.49 | 8.55–14.44 | 7.63–15.36 | 21.4913.88–29.09 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.61 | 0.45–2.77 | 0.12–3.11 | 3.370.33–6.42 |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 | 0.46–2.57 | 0.19–2.85 | 1.75 | 0.63–2.87 | 0.34–3.16 | 3.270.53–6.01 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.61 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.81–4.41 | 2.58 | 1.02–4.13 | 0.59–4.56 | 5.191.40–8.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
27%
35%
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
Total shots
33%
59%
Shots in box
49%
41%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
34%
Corners
43%
13%
44%
Fouls
33%
58%
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+