Championship· Regular Season - 38· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 | 0.62–2.54 | 0.36–2.80 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.34 | 0.37–2.59 | 3.060.73–5.39 |
| Shots on target | 4.93 | 3.07–6.78 | 2.57–7.28 | 4.72 | 3.01–6.42 | 2.54–6.89 | 9.645.11–14.17 |
| Total shots | 13.86 | 10.15–17.56 | 9.12–18.59 | 14.03 | 10.65–17.41 | 9.72–18.34 | 27.8918.84–36.93 |
| Shots in box | 9.56 | 7.05–12.08 | 6.18–12.94 | 9.30 | 7.00–11.60 | 6.20–12.40 | 18.8612.39–25.34 |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 | 2.44–5.61 | 1.91–6.14 | 3.66 | 2.25–5.08 | 1.76–5.56 | 7.693.67–11.71 |
| Corners | 5.03 | 2.83–7.24 | 2.23–7.83 | 4.85 | 2.87–6.82 | 2.33–7.36 | 9.884.56–15.20 |
| Possession % | 55.21 | 48.89–61.53 | 47.30–63.13 | 46.02 | 39.70–52.34 | 38.11–53.94 | — |
| Passes | 459 | 393–524 | 376–541 | 374 | 310–439 | 292–456 | 833668–998 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.48 | 71.27–79.70 | 69.96–81.00 | 73.65 | 69.14–78.16 | 67.81–79.49 | — |
| Fouls | 11.19 | 8.33–14.05 | 7.45–14.93 | 11.82 | 8.87–14.76 | 7.96–15.68 | 23.0115.41–30.62 |
| Offsides | 2.54 | 1.33–3.75 | 0.99–4.10 | 1.51 | 0.34–2.67 | 0.01–3.00 | 4.051.00–7.10 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.32–2.97 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 3.630.89–6.37 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.22–4.05 | 0.83–4.44 | 3.02 | 1.47–4.58 | 1.04–5.01 | 5.661.87–9.45 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
24%
36%
Shots on target
46%
41%
Total shots
45%
48%
Shots in box
48%
43%
Blocked shots
48%
15%
38%
Corners
46%
41%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
60%
18%
22%
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+