Championship· Regular Season - 40· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.32–2.25 | 0.06–2.51 | 1.61 | 0.75–2.47 | 0.51–2.72 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 4.80 | 2.94–6.65 | 2.44–7.15 | 4.86 | 3.15–6.57 | 2.69–7.04 | 9.665.13–14.19 |
| Total shots | 13.34 | 9.64–17.05 | 8.61–18.08 | 13.33 | 9.95–16.71 | 9.02–17.64 | 26.6717.63–35.72 |
| Shots in box | 8.69 | 6.18–11.21 | 5.31–12.07 | 8.66 | 6.36–10.96 | 5.56–11.76 | 17.3610.88–23.83 |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 | 1.90–5.06 | 1.36–5.60 | 3.63 | 2.21–5.04 | 1.73–5.53 | 7.113.09–11.13 |
| Corners | 5.37 | 3.16–7.57 | 2.57–8.17 | 5.13 | 3.15–7.10 | 2.61–7.64 | 10.495.18–15.81 |
| Possession % | 47.80 | 41.48–54.12 | 39.89–55.72 | 51.71 | 45.39–58.03 | 43.79–59.62 | — |
| Passes | 381 | 315–446 | 298–464 | 433 | 369–498 | 351–515 | 814649–979 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.84 | 67.63–76.06 | 66.33–77.36 | 73.66 | 69.15–78.17 | 67.82–79.50 | — |
| Fouls | 11.32 | 8.46–14.18 | 7.58–15.06 | 12.31 | 9.36–15.25 | 8.45–16.17 | 23.6316.02–31.23 |
| Offsides | 2.67 | 1.46–3.88 | 1.12–4.23 | 2.41 | 1.24–3.57 | 0.91–3.90 | 5.082.03–8.13 |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 | 0.89–3.00 | 0.61–3.27 | 2.15 | 1.03–3.27 | 0.74–3.56 | 4.091.35–6.83 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.00 | 1.59–4.42 | 1.20–4.81 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.56 | 1.02–4.99 | 6.012.22–9.80 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
24%
45%
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
Total shots
46%
46%
Shots in box
45%
45%
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
Corners
47%
41%
Fouls
38%
54%
Offsides
46%
18%
36%
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
42%
17%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+