Championship· Regular Season - 41· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 | 0.48–2.41 | 0.22–2.67 | 1.52 | 0.66–2.38 | 0.41–2.63 | 2.970.64–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 5.38 | 3.52–7.23 | 3.02–7.73 | 4.95 | 3.25–6.66 | 2.78–7.13 | 10.335.80–14.86 |
| Total shots | 15.77 | 12.07–19.47 | 11.03–20.50 | 13.58 | 10.20–16.95 | 9.27–17.88 | 29.3420.30–38.39 |
| Shots in box | 10.04 | 7.53–12.56 | 6.66–13.42 | 9.12 | 6.82–11.42 | 6.02–12.21 | 19.1612.68–25.64 |
| Blocked shots | 4.39 | 2.80–5.97 | 2.27–6.50 | 3.66 | 2.24–5.07 | 1.76–5.56 | 8.044.02–12.06 |
| Corners | 4.84 | 2.63–7.04 | 2.04–7.64 | 4.93 | 2.95–6.90 | 2.41–7.44 | 9.764.45–15.08 |
| Possession % | 52.92 | 46.60–59.24 | 45.01–60.83 | 48.58 | 42.26–54.90 | 40.67–56.50 | — |
| Passes | 497 | 431–562 | 414–580 | 455 | 391–520 | 373–537 | 952787–1117 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.20 | 74.98–83.41 | 73.68–84.71 | 76.50 | 71.99–81.01 | 70.66–82.34 | — |
| Fouls | 10.58 | 7.72–13.44 | 6.84–14.32 | 11.00 | 8.05–13.94 | 7.13–14.86 | 21.5813.97–29.18 |
| Offsides | 1.70 | 0.49–2.91 | 0.15–3.25 | 2.11 | 0.95–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.810.76–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.31–2.96 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.430.69–6.17 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.66 | 1.24–4.07 | 0.85–4.46 | 3.33 | 1.78–4.88 | 1.34–5.32 | 5.992.20–9.78 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
36%
24%
39%
Shots on target
49%
39%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
54%
37%
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
Corners
42%
45%
Fouls
42%
49%
Offsides
32%
21%
48%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
42%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+