Championship· Regular Season - 42· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 | 0.80–2.72 | 0.54–2.98 | 1.20 | 0.34–2.06 | 0.09–2.31 | 2.960.63–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 5.31 | 3.46–7.17 | 2.96–7.67 | 3.83 | 2.13–5.54 | 1.66–6.01 | 9.154.62–13.68 |
| Total shots | 14.66 | 10.95–18.36 | 9.92–19.39 | 11.72 | 8.35–15.10 | 7.42–16.03 | 26.3817.34–35.42 |
| Shots in box | 9.66 | 7.14–12.18 | 6.28–13.04 | 7.75 | 5.44–10.05 | 4.65–10.84 | 17.4110.93–23.88 |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 | 2.24–5.41 | 1.70–5.94 | 3.07 | 1.66–4.49 | 1.17–4.97 | 6.892.87–10.91 |
| Corners | 5.73 | 3.52–7.93 | 2.93–8.53 | 4.49 | 2.51–6.47 | 1.97–7.00 | 10.224.90–15.53 |
| Possession % | 55.19 | 48.87–61.50 | 47.27–63.10 | 45.13 | 38.81–51.45 | 37.21–53.05 | — |
| Passes | 436 | 371–502 | 353–519 | 350 | 285–414 | 268–432 | 786621–951 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.33 | 69.11–77.54 | 67.81–78.84 | 68.10 | 63.59–72.60 | 62.26–73.94 | — |
| Fouls | 11.07 | 8.21–13.93 | 7.33–14.81 | 12.44 | 9.50–15.39 | 8.58–16.30 | 23.5115.91–31.12 |
| Offsides | 2.05 | 0.84–3.26 | 0.50–3.60 | 2.07 | 0.91–3.24 | 0.58–3.57 | 4.121.07–7.17 |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 | 0.47–2.58 | 0.19–2.85 | 2.25 | 1.13–3.37 | 0.84–3.66 | 3.771.03–6.51 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.02–3.85 | 0.63–4.24 | 3.11 | 1.56–4.67 | 1.13–5.10 | 5.551.76–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
23%
26%
Shots on target
63%
25%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
63%
28%
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
35%
57%
Offsides
39%
20%
40%
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
31%
17%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+