Millwall vs Southampton — prediction & stats

Championship· Regular Season - 43· · The Den· referee: not announced

Predicted match statistics

Stat	Home	safe	safer	Away	safe	safer	Total
Goals	1.32	0.36–2.28	0.10–2.54	1.66	0.80–2.52	0.56–2.77	2.980.65–5.31
Shots on target	4.87	3.02–6.73	2.52–7.23	4.79	3.08–6.50	2.62–6.97	9.665.13–14.19
Total shots	14.58	10.88–18.28	9.85–19.32	13.33	9.95–16.71	9.02–17.64	27.9118.87–36.95
Shots in box	10.04	7.53–12.56	6.66–13.42	10.04	7.74–12.34	6.95–13.14	20.0913.61–26.57
Blocked shots	3.96	2.38–5.55	1.84–6.08	4.09	2.68–5.51	2.19–5.99	8.054.03–12.07
Corners	5.14	2.93–7.34	2.34–7.94	5.60	3.63–7.58	3.09–8.12	10.745.43–16.06
Possession %	39.74	33.42–46.06	31.83–47.66	61.49	55.17–67.81	53.58–69.41	—
Passes	318	252–383	235–401	500	436–565	418–582	818653–983
Pass accuracy %	65.16	60.95–69.38	59.64–70.68	75.66	71.16–80.17	69.83–81.50	—
Fouls	12.54	9.68–15.39	8.79–16.28	9.53	6.58–12.47	5.67–13.39	22.0714.46–29.67
Offsides	1.88	0.67–3.09	0.33–3.44	1.40	0.23–2.56	0.00–2.89	3.280.23–6.33
Yellow cards	1.75	0.70–2.81	0.42–3.08	1.58	0.46–2.70	0.17–2.99	3.340.60–6.07
Red cards	0.04	0.00–0.19	0.00–0.35	0.08	0.00–0.27	0.00–0.41	0.120.00–0.76
GK saves	2.74	1.32–4.15	0.93–4.54	2.88	1.33–4.43	0.89–4.86	5.621.83–9.41

safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic

Who wins each stat?

home draw away

Goals

30%

24%

46%

Shots on target

44%

13%

42%

Total shots

56%

37%

Shots in box

46%

Blocked shots

41%

14%

45%

Corners

38%

49%

Fouls

70%

23%

Offsides

49%

22%

29%

Yellow cards

42%

23%

35%

Red cards

89%

GK saves

39%

17%

44%

Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).

Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed

Target	Model / policy	Variant	PCA	MAE	RMSE
AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS	xgb	cform_coach_mean_rest	none	1.415	1.901
AWAY_CORNERS	xgb	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	1.978	2.516
AWAY_FOULS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	full	2.945	3.863
AWAY_GK_SAVES	lstm_mlp_multi	cform_coach_form_mean_rest	none	1.554	1.986
AWAY_GOALS	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	0.860	1.106
AWAY_OFFSIDES	lstm_mlp_multi	cform_coach_mean_rest	none	1.163	1.495
AWAY_PASSES	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	64.581	82.146
AWAY_PASS_ACC	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	4.507	5.837
AWAY_POSSESSION	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	6.319	7.916
AWAY_REDCARDS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	full	0.193	0.337
AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX	xgb	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	2.301	3.098
AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	1.707	2.176
AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	3.378	4.309
AWAY_YELLOWCARDS	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	1.120	1.410
HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS	xgb	cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest	none	1.584	2.119
HOME_CORNERS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	2.205	2.800
HOME_FOULS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	full	2.857	3.742
HOME_GK_SAVES	lstm_mlp_multi	cform_coach_form_mean_rest	none	1.414	1.804
HOME_GOALS	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	0.963	1.223
HOME_OFFSIDES	lstm_mlp_multi	cform_coach_form_mean_rest	none	1.209	1.554
HOME_PASSES	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	65.331	82.955
HOME_PASS_ACC	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	4.216	5.517
HOME_POSSESSION	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	6.318	7.914
HOME_REDCARDS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	0.153	0.306
HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	2.516	3.381
HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	1.856	2.355
HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS	lstm_mlp_single	cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	3.703	4.734
HOME_YELLOWCARDS	lgbm	cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum	none	1.056	1.328

Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+