Championship· Regular Season - 43· · Fratton Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 | 0.61–2.54 | 0.35–2.80 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.34 | 0.38–2.59 | 3.060.73–5.39 |
| Shots on target | 4.18 | 2.33–6.04 | 1.83–6.54 | 4.47 | 2.76–6.17 | 2.29–6.64 | 8.654.12–13.18 |
| Total shots | 12.84 | 9.14–16.54 | 8.11–17.58 | 12.93 | 9.55–16.31 | 8.62–17.24 | 25.7716.73–34.82 |
| Shots in box | 9.49 | 6.97–12.00 | 6.11–12.87 | 9.11 | 6.81–11.41 | 6.01–12.21 | 18.5912.12–25.07 |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 | 2.66–5.83 | 2.13–6.36 | 3.51 | 2.09–4.92 | 1.61–5.41 | 7.753.73–11.77 |
| Corners | 5.35 | 3.14–7.55 | 2.55–8.15 | 4.78 | 2.80–6.76 | 2.27–7.30 | 10.134.81–15.45 |
| Possession % | 51.76 | 45.44–58.08 | 43.85–59.67 | 50.39 | 44.07–56.71 | 42.47–58.31 | — |
| Passes | 431 | 365–496 | 348–513 | 438 | 373–502 | 355–520 | 868703–1033 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.69 | 72.48–80.91 | 71.17–82.21 | 72.74 | 68.23–77.24 | 66.90–78.57 | — |
| Fouls | 10.39 | 7.53–13.24 | 6.64–14.13 | 11.62 | 8.67–14.56 | 7.75–15.48 | 22.0014.40–29.61 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.39–2.80 | 0.04–3.15 | 2.15 | 0.99–3.31 | 0.65–3.64 | 3.740.69–6.79 |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 | 0.43–2.54 | 0.16–2.81 | 1.69 | 0.57–2.81 | 0.28–3.10 | 3.170.43–5.91 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.62 | 1.20–4.03 | 0.81–4.42 | 2.65 | 1.10–4.21 | 0.67–4.64 | 5.271.48–9.06 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
24%
36%
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
Total shots
45%
47%
Shots in box
49%
42%
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
Corners
51%
37%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
29%
21%
51%
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+