Championship· Regular Season - 43· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 | 0.43–2.36 | 0.17–2.62 | 1.29 | 0.43–2.15 | 0.19–2.40 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 4.53 | 2.67–6.38 | 2.17–6.88 | 3.47 | 1.76–5.18 | 1.29–5.65 | 8.003.47–12.53 |
| Total shots | 14.64 | 10.94–18.35 | 9.91–19.38 | 12.22 | 8.84–15.60 | 7.91–16.53 | 26.8717.82–35.91 |
| Shots in box | 9.12 | 6.60–11.63 | 5.74–12.50 | 7.46 | 5.16–9.76 | 4.36–10.56 | 16.5810.10–23.06 |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 | 2.35–5.52 | 1.82–6.05 | 3.07 | 1.65–4.48 | 1.17–4.97 | 7.002.98–11.02 |
| Corners | 5.15 | 2.95–7.36 | 2.35–7.95 | 4.56 | 2.58–6.53 | 2.04–7.07 | 9.714.39–15.02 |
| Possession % | 49.41 | 43.09–55.73 | 41.50–57.32 | 50.77 | 44.45–57.09 | 42.85–58.69 | — |
| Passes | 430 | 364–495 | 347–512 | 477 | 412–541 | 394–559 | 906741–1071 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.31 | 69.09–77.52 | 67.79–78.82 | 77.93 | 73.42–82.44 | 72.09–83.77 | — |
| Fouls | 11.14 | 8.28–13.99 | 7.40–14.88 | 10.37 | 7.43–13.32 | 6.51–14.24 | 21.5113.91–29.12 |
| Offsides | 1.49 | 0.28–2.70 | 0.00–3.05 | 1.50 | 0.34–2.66 | 0.01–3.00 | 2.990.00–6.04 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.32–2.98 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.490.75–6.23 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.45 | 1.03–3.86 | 0.64–4.25 | 2.77 | 1.22–4.33 | 0.79–4.76 | 5.221.43–9.01 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
26%
35%
Shots on target
58%
13%
29%
Total shots
64%
29%
Shots in box
61%
30%
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
52%
39%
Offsides
38%
24%
38%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
36%
18%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+