Championship· Regular Season - 43· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 | 0.97–2.89 | 0.71–3.15 | 0.91 | 0.05–1.77 | 0.00–2.01 | 2.840.51–5.17 |
| Shots on target | 6.14 | 4.28–7.99 | 3.78–8.49 | 3.58 | 1.87–5.28 | 1.40–5.75 | 9.715.18–14.24 |
| Total shots | 17.03 | 13.32–20.73 | 12.29–21.76 | 11.18 | 7.80–14.56 | 6.87–15.49 | 28.2119.16–37.25 |
| Shots in box | 11.44 | 8.93–13.96 | 8.06–14.82 | 7.14 | 4.84–9.44 | 4.04–10.23 | 18.5812.10–25.06 |
| Blocked shots | 4.70 | 3.12–6.28 | 2.58–6.82 | 2.90 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.00–4.81 | 7.613.59–11.63 |
| Corners | 5.80 | 3.59–8.00 | 3.00–8.60 | 3.89 | 1.91–5.86 | 1.37–6.40 | 9.684.37–15.00 |
| Possession % | 62.91 | 56.60–69.23 | 55.00–70.83 | 35.07 | 28.76–41.39 | 27.16–42.99 | — |
| Passes | 589 | 523–654 | 506–672 | 329 | 265–394 | 247–411 | 918753–1083 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.78 | 77.56–85.99 | 76.26–87.29 | 67.22 | 62.71–71.73 | 61.38–73.06 | — |
| Fouls | 9.50 | 6.64–12.36 | 5.76–13.24 | 11.72 | 8.78–14.67 | 7.86–15.59 | 21.2313.62–28.83 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.26–3.37 | 2.27 | 1.11–3.43 | 0.77–3.76 | 4.091.04–7.13 |
| Yellow cards | 1.17 | 0.11–2.22 | 0.00–2.49 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.14 | 0.61–3.43 | 3.190.45–5.93 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.13 | 0.72–3.55 | 0.33–3.94 | 3.67 | 2.12–5.22 | 1.68–5.66 | 5.802.01–9.59 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
61%
22%
17%
Shots on target
75%
16%
Total shots
84%
Shots in box
81%
13%
Blocked shots
68%
20%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
28%
65%
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
Yellow cards
21%
21%
57%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
19%
14%
67%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+