Championship· Regular Season - 44· · Vicarage Road· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 | 0.15–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 1.66 | 0.80–2.52 | 0.56–2.77 | 2.780.45–5.11 |
| Shots on target | 4.71 | 2.85–6.56 | 2.35–7.06 | 5.21 | 3.50–6.92 | 3.03–7.38 | 9.925.39–14.45 |
| Total shots | 13.43 | 9.73–17.13 | 8.70–18.16 | 14.69 | 11.32–18.07 | 10.39–19.00 | 28.1219.08–37.17 |
| Shots in box | 8.34 | 5.82–10.85 | 4.96–11.72 | 9.56 | 7.25–11.86 | 6.46–12.65 | 17.8911.42–24.37 |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 | 2.02–5.19 | 1.49–5.73 | 3.99 | 2.58–5.41 | 2.09–5.89 | 7.603.58–11.62 |
| Corners | 4.57 | 2.37–6.78 | 1.77–7.37 | 5.18 | 3.21–7.16 | 2.67–7.70 | 9.764.44–15.07 |
| Possession % | 41.31 | 34.99–47.63 | 33.40–49.22 | 58.72 | 52.41–65.04 | 50.81–66.64 | — |
| Passes | 390 | 325–456 | 307–473 | 527 | 463–592 | 445–609 | 918752–1083 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.28 | 65.07–73.50 | 63.77–74.80 | 78.30 | 73.80–82.81 | 72.47–84.14 | — |
| Fouls | 11.03 | 8.17–13.89 | 7.29–14.77 | 9.76 | 6.82–12.71 | 5.90–13.63 | 20.7913.19–28.40 |
| Offsides | 2.41 | 1.20–3.62 | 0.86–3.97 | 1.67 | 0.51–2.84 | 0.18–3.17 | 4.091.04–7.14 |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.28 | 1.51 | 0.39–2.63 | 0.10–2.92 | 3.470.73–6.21 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.16 | 1.75–4.57 | 1.36–4.96 | 2.92 | 1.37–4.48 | 0.94–4.91 | 6.082.29–9.87 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
24%
50%
Shots on target
37%
50%
Total shots
37%
56%
Shots in box
34%
57%
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
Corners
36%
51%
Fouls
57%
35%
Offsides
54%
19%
26%
Yellow cards
48%
22%
30%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+