Championship· Regular Season - 45· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 | 0.43–2.35 | 0.17–2.61 | 1.51 | 0.65–2.37 | 0.40–2.62 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 5.11 | 3.26–6.97 | 2.76–7.47 | 4.04 | 2.33–5.75 | 1.87–6.22 | 9.154.62–13.68 |
| Total shots | 13.48 | 9.78–17.19 | 8.75–18.22 | 12.02 | 8.64–15.40 | 7.71–16.33 | 25.5016.46–34.55 |
| Shots in box | 8.12 | 5.60–10.64 | 4.74–11.50 | 8.53 | 6.22–10.83 | 5.43–11.62 | 16.6410.17–23.12 |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 | 1.98–5.15 | 1.45–5.68 | 3.42 | 2.01–4.84 | 1.52–5.32 | 6.992.97–11.01 |
| Corners | 5.12 | 2.91–7.32 | 2.32–7.92 | 4.54 | 2.56–6.52 | 2.02–7.05 | 9.664.34–14.97 |
| Possession % | 47.74 | 41.42–54.06 | 39.82–55.65 | 51.58 | 45.26–57.90 | 43.67–59.50 | — |
| Passes | 434 | 369–500 | 351–517 | 487 | 423–552 | 405–570 | 922757–1087 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.97 | 72.76–81.19 | 71.45–82.49 | 75.71 | 71.20–80.22 | 69.87–81.55 | — |
| Fouls | 12.17 | 9.32–15.03 | 8.43–15.92 | 12.26 | 9.31–15.20 | 8.39–16.12 | 24.4316.82–32.04 |
| Offsides | 2.21 | 1.00–3.42 | 0.66–3.76 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.95 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.990.95–7.04 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.73–2.84 | 0.45–3.11 | 1.94 | 0.82–3.06 | 0.53–3.35 | 3.720.99–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.60 | 1.18–4.01 | 0.79–4.40 | 2.93 | 1.37–4.48 | 0.94–4.91 | 5.521.73–9.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
25%
40%
Shots on target
57%
30%
Total shots
58%
35%
Shots in box
41%
49%
Blocked shots
44%
15%
40%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+