Championship· Regular Season - 46· · The Hawthorns· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.12 | 1.15–3.08 | 0.89–3.34 | 0.99 | 0.13–1.85 | 0.00–2.10 | 3.110.78–5.43 |
| Shots on target | 5.51 | 3.65–7.37 | 3.16–7.87 | 3.68 | 1.97–5.38 | 1.50–5.85 | 9.194.66–13.72 |
| Total shots | 14.07 | 10.37–17.77 | 9.34–18.80 | 11.30 | 7.92–14.67 | 6.99–15.61 | 25.3716.32–34.41 |
| Shots in box | 11.09 | 8.57–13.60 | 7.70–14.47 | 6.73 | 4.43–9.03 | 3.63–9.83 | 17.8211.34–24.30 |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 | 2.29–5.46 | 1.76–6.00 | 3.04 | 1.63–4.46 | 1.14–4.94 | 6.922.90–10.94 |
| Corners | 5.72 | 3.51–7.92 | 2.92–8.52 | 4.27 | 2.29–6.25 | 1.76–6.79 | 9.994.67–15.30 |
| Possession % | 59.13 | 52.81–65.45 | 51.22–67.05 | 40.33 | 34.01–46.65 | 32.41–48.25 | — |
| Passes | 539 | 474–604 | 456–622 | 370 | 305–434 | 288–452 | 909744–1074 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.45 | 75.24–83.67 | 73.93–84.97 | 72.64 | 68.13–77.15 | 66.80–78.48 | — |
| Fouls | 11.23 | 8.37–14.08 | 7.48–14.97 | 11.76 | 8.81–14.70 | 7.89–15.62 | 22.9815.38–30.59 |
| Offsides | 2.93 | 1.72–4.14 | 1.37–4.48 | 1.84 | 0.68–3.00 | 0.35–3.34 | 4.771.72–7.82 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.34–2.45 | 0.07–2.72 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.22 | 3.210.47–5.95 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.49 | 1.08–3.91 | 0.69–4.30 | 3.16 | 1.61–4.72 | 1.18–5.15 | 5.651.87–9.44 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
63%
20%
17%
Shots on target
67%
22%
Total shots
67%
26%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
Corners
62%
27%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
60%
17%
23%
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
31%
17%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+