Liga I· Regular Season - 10· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 | 1.22–3.14 | 0.95–3.40 | 0.81 | 0.00–1.67 | 0.00–1.92 | 2.990.66–5.32 |
| Shots on target | 5.72 | 3.87–7.58 | 3.37–8.08 | 3.05 | 1.34–4.75 | 0.87–5.22 | 8.774.24–13.30 |
| Total shots | 16.22 | 12.51–19.92 | 11.48–20.95 | 8.79 | 5.42–12.17 | 4.49–13.10 | 25.0115.97–34.05 |
| Shots in box | 11.36 | 8.84–13.87 | 7.98–14.74 | 5.83 | 3.53–8.13 | 2.73–8.93 | 17.1910.71–23.67 |
| Blocked shots | 4.35 | 2.76–5.93 | 2.23–6.47 | 2.74 | 1.32–4.15 | 0.84–4.64 | 7.093.07–11.10 |
| Corners | 6.56 | 4.35–8.76 | 3.76–9.36 | 4.07 | 2.10–6.05 | 1.56–6.59 | 10.635.32–15.95 |
| Possession % | 58.29 | 51.97–64.61 | 50.38–66.20 | 41.81 | 35.49–48.12 | 33.89–49.72 | — |
| Passes | 504 | 438–569 | 421–587 | 366 | 301–430 | 283–448 | 869704–1034 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.72 | 76.51–84.94 | 75.20–86.24 | 71.67 | 67.17–76.18 | 65.84–77.51 | — |
| Fouls | 10.64 | 7.78–13.50 | 6.90–14.38 | 10.01 | 7.06–12.95 | 6.14–13.87 | 20.6513.04–28.25 |
| Offsides | 1.57 | 0.36–2.77 | 0.01–3.12 | 2.15 | 0.99–3.32 | 0.66–3.65 | 3.720.67–6.77 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.62–2.73 | 0.34–3.00 | 2.35 | 1.23–3.47 | 0.94–3.76 | 4.021.28–6.76 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 1.93 | 0.52–3.35 | 0.13–3.73 | 3.93 | 2.38–5.49 | 1.95–5.92 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
69%
19%
Shots on target
77%
14%
Total shots
92%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
66%
21%
Corners
73%
18%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
28%
21%
51%
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
14%
73%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+