Liga I· Regular Season - 10· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 | 0.65–2.57 | 0.39–2.83 | 1.12 | 0.26–1.98 | 0.01–2.22 | 2.730.40–5.05 |
| Shots on target | 4.93 | 3.08–6.79 | 2.58–7.29 | 4.20 | 2.49–5.91 | 2.03–6.38 | 9.134.60–13.66 |
| Total shots | 14.59 | 10.88–18.29 | 9.85–19.32 | 11.54 | 8.16–14.91 | 7.23–15.85 | 26.1217.08–35.17 |
| Shots in box | 9.74 | 7.22–12.25 | 6.35–13.12 | 7.11 | 4.80–9.41 | 4.01–10.20 | 16.8410.36–23.32 |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 | 1.97–5.14 | 1.43–5.67 | 2.82 | 1.40–4.23 | 0.91–4.72 | 6.372.35–10.39 |
| Corners | 5.54 | 3.33–7.74 | 2.74–8.34 | 4.18 | 2.20–6.16 | 1.66–6.69 | 9.724.40–15.03 |
| Possession % | 46.38 | 40.06–52.70 | 38.47–54.29 | 52.71 | 46.39–59.03 | 44.80–60.63 | — |
| Passes | 371 | 306–437 | 288–454 | 437 | 372–501 | 355–519 | 808643–973 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.24 | 65.02–73.45 | 63.72–74.76 | 69.89 | 65.38–74.39 | 64.05–75.72 | — |
| Fouls | 16.65 | 13.79–19.51 | 12.91–20.39 | 12.76 | 9.82–15.71 | 8.90–16.63 | 29.4221.81–37.02 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.03 | 0.27–3.38 | 2.04 | 0.88–3.20 | 0.55–3.54 | 3.870.82–6.92 |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 | 1.00–3.12 | 0.73–3.39 | 2.17 | 1.05–3.29 | 0.76–3.58 | 4.231.49–6.97 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.210.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.02–3.84 | 0.63–4.23 | 3.16 | 1.60–4.71 | 1.17–5.14 | 5.591.80–9.38 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
25%
26%
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
Total shots
69%
24%
Shots in box
70%
22%
Blocked shots
54%
16%
31%
Corners
61%
27%
Fouls
73%
21%
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
30%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+