Liga I· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 | 0.67–2.59 | 0.41–2.85 | 1.23 | 0.37–2.09 | 0.12–2.33 | 2.860.53–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 5.36 | 3.50–7.22 | 3.01–7.72 | 4.02 | 2.32–5.73 | 1.85–6.20 | 9.384.85–13.91 |
| Total shots | 15.01 | 11.30–18.71 | 10.27–19.74 | 10.78 | 7.40–14.16 | 6.47–15.09 | 25.7816.74–34.83 |
| Shots in box | 9.61 | 7.09–12.12 | 6.23–12.99 | 6.89 | 4.59–9.19 | 3.79–9.99 | 16.5010.02–22.98 |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 | 2.55–5.71 | 2.01–6.25 | 2.76 | 1.35–4.18 | 0.86–4.66 | 6.892.87–10.91 |
| Corners | 5.45 | 3.24–7.65 | 2.65–8.25 | 4.33 | 2.35–6.30 | 1.81–6.84 | 9.774.46–15.09 |
| Possession % | 50.82 | 44.50–57.14 | 42.91–58.74 | 48.36 | 42.04–54.67 | 40.44–56.27 | — |
| Passes | 414 | 348–479 | 331–497 | 421 | 356–485 | 339–503 | 834669–999 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.85 | 73.63–82.06 | 72.33–83.36 | 77.68 | 73.17–82.18 | 71.84–83.51 | — |
| Fouls | 12.35 | 9.49–15.21 | 8.61–16.09 | 12.56 | 9.61–15.51 | 8.70–16.42 | 24.9117.31–32.52 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.12–3.23 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.87 | 0.22–3.21 | 3.390.34–6.44 |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 | 1.17–3.28 | 0.89–3.55 | 2.41 | 1.29–3.53 | 1.00–3.82 | 4.631.89–7.37 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.02–3.85 | 0.63–4.24 | 2.79 | 1.23–4.34 | 0.80–4.77 | 5.221.43–9.01 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
24%
29%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
77%
17%
Shots in box
71%
21%
Blocked shots
63%
14%
24%
Corners
58%
30%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+