Liga I· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.52 | 0.33–2.78 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.03–2.24 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.37 | 3.51–7.22 | 3.01–7.72 | 4.13 | 2.42–5.83 | 1.95–6.30 | 9.494.96–14.02 |
| Total shots | 14.73 | 11.03–18.44 | 10.00–19.47 | 12.53 | 9.15–15.91 | 8.22–16.84 | 27.2618.22–36.30 |
| Shots in box | 10.12 | 7.60–12.63 | 6.73–13.50 | 8.25 | 5.95–10.55 | 5.15–11.35 | 18.3611.89–24.84 |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 | 2.56–5.73 | 2.03–6.26 | 3.31 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.41–5.21 | 7.463.44–11.47 |
| Corners | 5.50 | 3.29–7.70 | 2.70–8.30 | 4.48 | 2.50–6.46 | 1.97–7.00 | 9.984.66–15.30 |
| Possession % | 54.43 | 48.11–60.75 | 46.52–62.34 | 46.42 | 40.10–52.74 | 38.50–54.34 | — |
| Passes | 454 | 388–519 | 371–537 | 374 | 310–439 | 292–456 | 828663–993 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.01 | 65.79–74.22 | 64.49–75.52 | 69.10 | 64.59–73.60 | 63.26–74.93 | — |
| Fouls | 11.97 | 9.11–14.83 | 8.23–15.71 | 12.17 | 9.22–15.11 | 8.30–16.03 | 24.1416.53–31.74 |
| Offsides | 1.77 | 0.56–2.97 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.54 | 0.38–2.70 | 0.05–3.04 | 3.310.26–6.36 |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 | 0.52–2.63 | 0.24–2.90 | 2.33 | 1.21–3.45 | 0.92–3.74 | 3.901.16–6.64 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.67 | 1.25–4.08 | 0.86–4.47 | 2.91 | 1.36–4.46 | 0.92–4.90 | 5.581.79–9.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
25%
28%
Shots on target
59%
28%
Total shots
63%
30%
Shots in box
62%
29%
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
Corners
56%
31%
Fouls
44%
47%
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
Yellow cards
26%
20%
55%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
37%
17%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+