Liga I· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 0.34–2.27 | 0.08–2.53 | 1.40 | 0.54–2.26 | 0.29–2.51 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 4.21 | 2.35–6.06 | 1.85–6.56 | 4.57 | 2.86–6.28 | 2.40–6.75 | 8.784.25–13.31 |
| Total shots | 11.96 | 8.26–15.66 | 7.23–16.69 | 12.90 | 9.52–16.28 | 8.59–17.21 | 24.8615.82–33.90 |
| Shots in box | 9.45 | 6.93–11.96 | 6.07–12.83 | 7.50 | 5.19–9.80 | 4.40–10.59 | 16.9410.46–23.42 |
| Blocked shots | 3.29 | 1.70–4.87 | 1.17–5.41 | 3.17 | 1.75–4.58 | 1.27–5.07 | 6.462.44–10.48 |
| Corners | 4.38 | 2.17–6.58 | 1.58–7.18 | 4.78 | 2.80–6.76 | 2.26–7.30 | 9.163.84–14.47 |
| Possession % | 48.87 | 42.55–55.19 | 40.96–56.78 | 50.11 | 43.79–56.43 | 42.19–58.02 | — |
| Passes | 400 | 335–465 | 317–483 | 429 | 364–493 | 346–511 | 829663–994 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.83 | 62.61–71.04 | 61.31–72.34 | 66.46 | 61.95–70.96 | 60.62–72.29 | — |
| Fouls | 11.35 | 8.49–14.21 | 7.61–15.09 | 12.06 | 9.12–15.01 | 8.20–15.93 | 23.4115.81–31.02 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.41 | 1.72 | 0.56–2.89 | 0.23–3.22 | 3.580.54–6.63 |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 | 0.75–2.87 | 0.48–3.14 | 1.90 | 0.78–3.02 | 0.49–3.31 | 3.710.97–6.45 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.76 | 1.35–4.18 | 0.96–4.57 | 2.62 | 1.06–4.17 | 0.63–4.60 | 5.381.59–9.17 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
26%
39%
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
Total shots
39%
53%
Shots in box
64%
28%
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
Corners
38%
13%
49%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
44%
18%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+