Liga I· Regular Season - 21· · Stadionul Francisc von Neuman· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 | 0.47–2.40 | 0.21–2.66 | 1.37 | 0.51–2.23 | 0.26–2.48 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 4.77 | 2.91–6.63 | 2.41–7.12 | 4.00 | 2.29–5.71 | 1.82–6.17 | 8.774.24–13.30 |
| Total shots | 14.09 | 10.39–17.80 | 9.36–18.83 | 12.17 | 8.79–15.55 | 7.86–16.48 | 26.2717.22–35.31 |
| Shots in box | 8.40 | 5.89–10.92 | 5.02–11.78 | 8.70 | 6.40–11.00 | 5.61–11.80 | 17.1110.63–23.59 |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 | 2.08–5.25 | 1.54–5.78 | 3.28 | 1.86–4.69 | 1.38–5.18 | 6.942.92–10.96 |
| Corners | 5.34 | 3.13–7.54 | 2.54–8.14 | 4.76 | 2.78–6.74 | 2.24–7.28 | 10.104.78–15.42 |
| Possession % | 50.13 | 43.81–56.45 | 42.22–58.05 | 50.36 | 44.04–56.67 | 42.44–58.27 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 341–471 | 323–489 | 385 | 321–450 | 303–468 | 792626–957 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.27 | 61.06–69.49 | 59.75–70.79 | 68.74 | 64.23–73.24 | 62.90–74.57 | — |
| Fouls | 13.11 | 10.26–15.97 | 9.37–16.85 | 13.09 | 10.15–16.04 | 9.23–16.96 | 26.2118.60–33.81 |
| Offsides | 1.85 | 0.64–3.06 | 0.30–3.41 | 2.11 | 0.95–3.28 | 0.62–3.61 | 3.970.92–7.02 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.66–2.78 | 0.39–3.05 | 2.18 | 1.06–3.30 | 0.77–3.59 | 3.901.16–6.64 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.40 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.59–4.20 | 2.93 | 1.38–4.48 | 0.94–4.92 | 5.331.54–9.12 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
25%
36%
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
42%
48%
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
Corners
51%
37%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
35%
21%
45%
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
32%
17%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+