Liga I· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.88 | 0.00–1.84 | 0.00–2.10 | 2.09 | 1.23–2.95 | 0.98–3.19 | 2.960.63–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 3.34 | 1.49–5.20 | 0.99–5.70 | 6.56 | 4.85–8.27 | 4.38–8.74 | 9.905.37–14.43 |
| Total shots | 9.15 | 5.45–12.86 | 4.42–13.89 | 17.86 | 14.48–21.24 | 13.55–22.17 | 27.0117.97–36.06 |
| Shots in box | 6.18 | 3.66–8.69 | 2.80–9.56 | 11.50 | 9.20–13.80 | 8.40–14.59 | 17.6711.19–24.15 |
| Blocked shots | 2.57 | 0.99–4.16 | 0.46–4.69 | 4.28 | 2.86–5.69 | 2.38–6.18 | 6.852.83–10.87 |
| Corners | 3.50 | 1.29–5.70 | 0.70–6.30 | 6.18 | 4.20–8.16 | 3.66–8.70 | 9.684.36–14.99 |
| Possession % | 40.33 | 34.01–46.64 | 32.41–48.24 | 59.21 | 52.89–65.53 | 51.29–67.13 | — |
| Passes | 382 | 316–447 | 299–464 | 511 | 447–576 | 429–593 | 893728–1058 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.53 | 62.31–70.74 | 61.01–72.05 | 78.07 | 73.56–82.58 | 72.23–83.91 | — |
| Fouls | 9.37 | 6.51–12.22 | 5.62–13.11 | 10.68 | 7.74–13.63 | 6.82–14.55 | 20.0512.44–27.65 |
| Offsides | 2.32 | 1.11–3.53 | 0.76–3.87 | 1.70 | 0.53–2.86 | 0.20–3.19 | 4.020.97–7.06 |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 | 0.96–3.07 | 0.69–3.34 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 3.751.01–6.49 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 4.51 | 3.10–5.92 | 2.71–6.31 | 2.12 | 0.57–3.68 | 0.14–4.11 | 6.632.85–10.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
15%
20%
65%
Shots on target
81%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
20%
68%
Corners
15%
76%
Fouls
34%
57%
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
Yellow cards
45%
21%
34%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
77%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+