Liga I· Regular Season - 22· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 | 0.62–2.54 | 0.36–2.80 | 1.11 | 0.25–1.97 | 0.00–2.22 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.27 | 3.42–7.13 | 2.92–7.63 | 3.87 | 2.16–5.58 | 1.70–6.05 | 9.144.61–13.68 |
| Total shots | 14.91 | 11.20–18.61 | 10.17–19.64 | 10.66 | 7.28–14.04 | 6.35–14.97 | 25.5616.52–34.61 |
| Shots in box | 9.19 | 6.68–11.71 | 5.81–12.57 | 6.30 | 4.00–8.60 | 3.20–9.40 | 15.499.01–21.97 |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 | 2.26–5.43 | 1.73–5.96 | 2.71 | 1.30–4.13 | 0.81–4.61 | 6.562.54–10.58 |
| Corners | 5.68 | 3.47–7.88 | 2.88–8.48 | 3.97 | 1.99–5.95 | 1.46–6.49 | 9.654.33–14.96 |
| Possession % | 56.29 | 49.97–62.61 | 48.38–64.21 | 43.83 | 37.51–50.15 | 35.91–51.74 | — |
| Passes | 506 | 440–571 | 423–589 | 401 | 337–466 | 319–483 | 907742–1072 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.69 | 74.48–82.91 | 73.18–84.21 | 71.09 | 66.58–75.60 | 65.25–76.93 | — |
| Fouls | 10.44 | 7.59–13.30 | 6.70–14.19 | 12.82 | 9.87–15.76 | 8.95–16.68 | 23.2615.66–30.87 |
| Offsides | 1.67 | 0.46–2.88 | 0.12–3.22 | 1.56 | 0.40–2.73 | 0.07–3.06 | 3.230.19–6.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 | 0.71–2.83 | 0.44–3.10 | 2.27 | 1.15–3.39 | 0.86–3.68 | 4.041.31–6.78 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.20 | 0.78–3.61 | 0.39–4.00 | 3.15 | 1.60–4.71 | 1.17–5.14 | 5.351.56–9.14 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
25%
27%
Shots on target
62%
26%
Total shots
77%
17%
Shots in box
73%
19%
Blocked shots
60%
15%
26%
Corners
65%
24%
Fouls
28%
65%
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+