Liga I· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 | 0.50–2.43 | 0.24–2.69 | 1.41 | 0.55–2.27 | 0.30–2.51 | 2.880.55–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 5.13 | 3.27–6.98 | 2.77–7.48 | 4.45 | 2.74–6.15 | 2.27–6.62 | 9.575.04–14.10 |
| Total shots | 14.37 | 10.67–18.08 | 9.64–19.11 | 12.55 | 9.17–15.92 | 8.24–16.86 | 26.9217.87–35.96 |
| Shots in box | 8.99 | 6.48–11.51 | 5.61–12.37 | 8.06 | 5.76–10.36 | 4.96–11.16 | 17.0510.57–23.53 |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 | 1.83–4.99 | 1.29–5.53 | 3.54 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.64–5.45 | 6.962.94–10.97 |
| Corners | 5.44 | 3.23–7.64 | 2.64–8.24 | 4.56 | 2.58–6.54 | 2.05–7.08 | 10.004.68–15.32 |
| Possession % | 50.84 | 44.53–57.16 | 42.93–58.76 | 48.27 | 41.95–54.58 | 40.35–56.18 | — |
| Passes | 441 | 376–506 | 358–524 | 414 | 350–479 | 332–496 | 855690–1020 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.66 | 72.45–80.88 | 71.15–82.18 | 75.53 | 71.03–80.04 | 69.70–81.37 | — |
| Fouls | 11.33 | 8.47–14.18 | 7.58–15.07 | 13.37 | 10.43–16.32 | 9.51–17.24 | 24.7017.09–32.30 |
| Offsides | 2.17 | 0.97–3.38 | 0.62–3.73 | 1.53 | 0.36–2.69 | 0.03–3.02 | 3.700.65–6.75 |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 | 0.97–3.08 | 0.70–3.35 | 2.47 | 1.35–3.59 | 1.06–3.88 | 4.491.76–7.23 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.00–0.48 | 0.220.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.76 | 1.35–4.18 | 0.96–4.57 | 2.93 | 1.38–4.49 | 0.95–4.92 | 5.701.91–9.49 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
25%
36%
Shots on target
52%
35%
Total shots
60%
33%
Shots in box
54%
36%
Blocked shots
40%
15%
44%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
30%
62%
Offsides
53%
21%
27%
Yellow cards
32%
19%
48%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+