Liga I· Regular Season - 30· · Stadionul Francisc von Neuman· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.33–2.26 | 0.07–2.52 | 1.40 | 0.54–2.26 | 0.30–2.51 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 4.54 | 2.68–6.40 | 2.19–6.90 | 4.06 | 2.36–5.77 | 1.89–6.24 | 8.604.07–13.14 |
| Total shots | 14.26 | 10.55–17.96 | 9.52–18.99 | 12.23 | 8.85–15.61 | 7.92–16.54 | 26.4817.44–35.53 |
| Shots in box | 8.31 | 5.79–10.83 | 4.93–11.69 | 9.50 | 7.19–11.80 | 6.40–12.59 | 17.8111.33–24.28 |
| Blocked shots | 3.76 | 2.18–5.34 | 1.64–5.88 | 3.36 | 1.95–4.78 | 1.46–5.26 | 7.123.10–11.14 |
| Corners | 5.23 | 3.02–7.43 | 2.43–8.03 | 5.13 | 3.15–7.11 | 2.61–7.64 | 10.355.04–15.67 |
| Possession % | 49.70 | 43.38–56.02 | 41.79–57.61 | 49.46 | 43.14–55.78 | 41.54–57.38 | — |
| Passes | 424 | 358–489 | 341–507 | 440 | 375–504 | 358–522 | 863698–1029 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.35 | 66.14–74.57 | 64.84–75.87 | 74.60 | 70.09–79.10 | 68.76–80.44 | — |
| Fouls | 12.74 | 9.88–15.60 | 9.00–16.48 | 11.20 | 8.25–14.14 | 7.33–15.06 | 23.9416.33–31.54 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.10–3.21 | 2.00 | 0.84–3.16 | 0.50–3.49 | 3.650.60–6.70 |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 | 0.85–2.96 | 0.57–3.23 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.791.06–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.80 | 1.38–4.21 | 0.99–4.60 | 2.89 | 1.34–4.45 | 0.91–4.88 | 5.691.90–9.48 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
26%
40%
Shots on target
50%
14%
37%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
34%
56%
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
Corners
45%
43%
Fouls
58%
34%
Offsides
32%
21%
46%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+