La Liga· Regular Season - 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 | 0.23–2.16 | 0.00–2.42 | 1.81 | 0.95–2.67 | 0.70–2.91 | 3.000.67–5.33 |
| Shots on target | 4.25 | 2.39–6.10 | 1.89–6.60 | 5.04 | 3.33–6.74 | 2.86–7.21 | 9.284.75–13.82 |
| Total shots | 12.87 | 9.16–16.57 | 8.13–17.60 | 14.25 | 10.87–17.62 | 9.94–18.56 | 27.1118.07–36.16 |
| Shots in box | 7.61 | 5.09–10.12 | 4.23–10.99 | 9.04 | 6.74–11.34 | 5.94–12.14 | 16.6510.17–23.12 |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 | 1.90–5.07 | 1.36–5.60 | 3.97 | 2.56–5.39 | 2.07–5.87 | 7.453.44–11.47 |
| Corners | 5.07 | 2.86–7.27 | 2.27–7.87 | 5.53 | 3.55–7.51 | 3.02–8.05 | 10.605.28–15.92 |
| Possession % | 44.81 | 38.50–51.13 | 36.90–52.73 | 54.49 | 48.17–60.80 | 46.57–62.40 | — |
| Passes | 425 | 360–490 | 342–508 | 527 | 462–591 | 445–609 | 952787–1117 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.50 | 64.29–72.72 | 62.99–74.02 | 77.72 | 73.22–82.23 | 71.89–83.56 | — |
| Fouls | 11.50 | 8.64–14.36 | 7.76–15.24 | 11.55 | 8.60–14.49 | 7.69–15.41 | 23.0515.44–30.65 |
| Offsides | 2.16 | 0.95–3.37 | 0.61–3.72 | 2.39 | 1.22–3.55 | 0.89–3.88 | 4.551.50–7.60 |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 | 0.87–2.98 | 0.60–3.25 | 1.95 | 0.83–3.07 | 0.54–3.36 | 3.871.13–6.61 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.26 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.45–5.06 | 2.88 | 1.32–4.43 | 0.89–4.86 | 6.142.35–9.93 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
25%
23%
52%
Shots on target
33%
54%
Total shots
36%
57%
Shots in box
32%
59%
Blocked shots
36%
15%
50%
Corners
38%
49%
Fouls
45%
46%
Offsides
36%
19%
44%
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+