Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 | 0.67–2.59 | 0.40–2.85 | 0.96 | 0.10–1.82 | 0.00–2.06 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.73 | 2.88–6.59 | 2.38–7.09 | 3.09 | 1.38–4.80 | 0.91–5.27 | 7.823.29–12.35 |
| Total shots | 14.26 | 10.55–17.96 | 9.52–18.99 | 9.20 | 5.83–12.58 | 4.90–13.51 | 23.4614.42–32.50 |
| Shots in box | 9.29 | 6.78–11.81 | 5.91–12.67 | 6.47 | 4.17–8.78 | 3.38–9.57 | 15.779.29–22.24 |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 | 2.28–5.44 | 1.74–5.98 | 2.81 | 1.40–4.23 | 0.91–4.71 | 6.672.65–10.69 |
| Corners | 6.37 | 4.16–8.57 | 3.56–9.17 | 3.61 | 1.63–5.59 | 1.10–6.13 | 9.984.66–15.29 |
| Possession % | 59.16 | 52.84–65.48 | 51.24–67.07 | 41.75 | 35.43–48.07 | 33.83–49.66 | — |
| Passes | 581 | 516–646 | 498–664 | 418 | 354–483 | 336–500 | 999834–1164 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.60 | 72.39–80.82 | 71.09–82.12 | 71.66 | 67.15–76.16 | 65.82–77.49 | — |
| Fouls | 10.05 | 7.19–12.91 | 6.31–13.79 | 11.92 | 8.98–14.87 | 8.06–15.78 | 21.9714.36–29.58 |
| Offsides | 2.81 | 1.60–4.02 | 1.26–4.37 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.49 | 0.00–2.82 | 4.141.09–7.19 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.60–2.71 | 0.33–2.98 | 2.13 | 1.01–3.25 | 0.72–3.54 | 3.791.05–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.200.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 1.99 | 0.57–3.40 | 0.18–3.79 | 2.94 | 1.38–4.49 | 0.95–4.92 | 4.921.13–8.71 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
25%
22%
Shots on target
66%
22%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
Corners
76%
15%
Fouls
31%
62%
Offsides
68%
16%
16%
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
25%
17%
58%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+