La Liga· Regular Season - 8· · Camp Nou· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.28 | 2.32–4.25 | 2.06–4.51 | 0.54 | 0.00–1.40 | 0.00–1.65 | 3.831.50–6.16 |
| Shots on target | 10.09 | 8.23–11.94 | 7.73–12.44 | 2.20 | 0.50–3.91 | 0.03–4.38 | 12.297.76–16.82 |
| Total shots | 22.91 | 19.21–26.62 | 18.18–27.65 | 5.63 | 2.25–9.00 | 1.32–9.93 | 28.5419.50–37.58 |
| Shots in box | 14.20 | 11.68–16.72 | 10.82–17.58 | 3.96 | 1.66–6.26 | 0.86–7.06 | 18.1611.68–24.64 |
| Blocked shots | 5.12 | 3.54–6.71 | 3.00–7.24 | 1.49 | 0.08–2.91 | 0.00–3.39 | 6.622.60–10.63 |
| Corners | 9.01 | 6.81–11.22 | 6.21–11.81 | 2.20 | 0.23–4.18 | 0.00–4.72 | 11.225.90–16.53 |
| Possession % | 76.08 | 69.76–82.40 | 68.17–84.00 | 23.52 | 17.20–29.84 | 15.60–31.43 | — |
| Passes | 798 | 733–863 | 715–881 | 240 | 175–304 | 158–322 | 1038873–1203 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.31 | 83.10–91.53 | 81.80–92.83 | 62.18 | 57.68–66.69 | 56.35–68.02 | — |
| Fouls | 7.29 | 4.43–10.15 | 3.55–11.03 | 10.65 | 7.70–13.59 | 6.78–14.51 | 17.9410.33–25.54 |
| Offsides | 2.11 | 0.90–3.32 | 0.56–3.66 | 2.89 | 1.73–4.05 | 1.40–4.39 | 5.001.95–8.05 |
| Yellow cards | 0.96 | 0.00–2.01 | 0.00–2.28 | 2.23 | 1.11–3.35 | 0.82–3.64 | 3.190.45–5.92 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 1.56 | 0.15–2.98 | 0.00–3.37 | 5.10 | 3.54–6.65 | 3.11–7.08 | 6.662.87–10.45 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
89%
Shots on target
99%
Total shots
100%
Shots in box
99%
Blocked shots
90%
Corners
98%
Fouls
18%
75%
Offsides
28%
17%
55%
Yellow cards
15%
19%
66%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
89%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+