La Liga· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 0.41–2.33 | 0.15–2.59 | 1.11 | 0.25–1.97 | 0.00–2.21 | 2.480.15–4.81 |
| Shots on target | 4.61 | 2.75–6.47 | 2.25–6.97 | 3.80 | 2.09–5.51 | 1.63–5.98 | 8.413.88–12.94 |
| Total shots | 13.53 | 9.83–17.24 | 8.80–18.27 | 11.12 | 7.74–14.50 | 6.81–15.43 | 24.6515.61–33.70 |
| Shots in box | 7.91 | 5.39–10.42 | 4.53–11.29 | 6.49 | 4.19–8.79 | 3.39–9.59 | 14.407.92–20.87 |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 | 1.94–5.11 | 1.40–5.64 | 3.13 | 1.72–4.54 | 1.23–5.03 | 6.652.63–10.67 |
| Corners | 5.00 | 2.79–7.20 | 2.20–7.80 | 4.05 | 2.07–6.03 | 1.53–6.56 | 9.053.73–14.36 |
| Possession % | 49.07 | 42.75–55.38 | 41.15–56.98 | 51.69 | 45.37–58.01 | 43.77–59.61 | — |
| Passes | 453 | 388–519 | 371–536 | 458 | 393–522 | 376–540 | 911746–1076 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.03 | 68.82–77.25 | 67.52–78.55 | 72.34 | 67.83–76.85 | 66.50–78.18 | — |
| Fouls | 12.31 | 9.45–15.17 | 8.57–16.05 | 12.91 | 9.97–15.86 | 9.05–16.77 | 25.2217.62–32.83 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.56–2.97 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.47 | 0.31–2.64 | 0.00–2.97 | 3.240.19–6.29 |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 | 0.96–3.07 | 0.69–3.34 | 2.10 | 0.98–3.22 | 0.69–3.51 | 4.121.38–6.86 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.56 | 1.14–3.97 | 0.75–4.36 | 2.49 | 0.93–4.04 | 0.50–4.47 | 5.051.26–8.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
27%
30%
Shots on target
54%
13%
32%
Total shots
65%
28%
Shots in box
60%
31%
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
Corners
56%
31%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
38%
20%
41%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+