La Liga· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 | 0.52–2.45 | 0.26–2.71 | 1.33 | 0.47–2.19 | 0.23–2.44 | 2.820.49–5.15 |
| Shots on target | 5.39 | 3.54–7.25 | 3.04–7.75 | 4.01 | 2.30–5.72 | 1.84–6.19 | 9.414.88–13.94 |
| Total shots | 15.38 | 11.68–19.09 | 10.65–20.12 | 12.01 | 8.63–15.39 | 7.70–16.32 | 27.4018.35–36.44 |
| Shots in box | 9.64 | 7.13–12.16 | 6.26–13.02 | 8.10 | 5.80–10.40 | 5.00–11.20 | 17.7511.27–24.22 |
| Blocked shots | 4.73 | 3.14–6.31 | 2.61–6.84 | 3.43 | 2.01–4.84 | 1.52–5.33 | 8.154.13–12.17 |
| Corners | 6.26 | 4.06–8.47 | 3.46–9.06 | 5.26 | 3.28–7.24 | 2.74–7.78 | 11.526.21–16.84 |
| Possession % | 56.31 | 49.99–62.63 | 48.40–64.22 | 43.27 | 36.96–49.59 | 35.36–51.19 | — |
| Passes | 502 | 437–567 | 419–585 | 400 | 336–465 | 318–483 | 902737–1067 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.24 | 65.03–73.46 | 63.73–74.76 | 69.34 | 64.84–73.85 | 63.51–75.18 | — |
| Fouls | 10.55 | 7.70–13.41 | 6.81–14.29 | 11.71 | 8.77–14.66 | 7.85–15.58 | 22.2714.66–29.87 |
| Offsides | 2.00 | 0.79–3.21 | 0.44–3.55 | 1.68 | 0.52–2.85 | 0.19–3.18 | 3.680.63–6.73 |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 | 0.78–2.89 | 0.51–3.16 | 2.34 | 1.22–3.47 | 0.93–3.76 | 4.181.44–6.92 |
| Red cards | 0.12 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.220.00–0.87 |
| GK saves | 2.77 | 1.35–4.18 | 0.96–4.57 | 3.02 | 1.46–4.57 | 1.03–5.00 | 5.781.99–9.57 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
25%
34%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
71%
23%
Shots in box
60%
31%
Blocked shots
61%
26%
Corners
56%
33%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
46%
21%
33%
Yellow cards
31%
20%
50%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
38%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+