La Liga· Regular Season - 15· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 | 0.65–2.58 | 0.39–2.84 | 0.94 | 0.08–1.80 | 0.00–2.05 | 2.560.23–4.89 |
| Shots on target | 4.86 | 3.01–6.72 | 2.51–7.22 | 3.33 | 1.62–5.04 | 1.15–5.51 | 8.193.66–12.73 |
| Total shots | 14.35 | 10.65–18.05 | 9.62–19.08 | 9.95 | 6.57–13.33 | 5.64–14.26 | 24.3015.26–33.35 |
| Shots in box | 9.67 | 7.15–12.18 | 6.29–13.05 | 5.57 | 3.27–7.87 | 2.47–8.67 | 15.248.76–21.71 |
| Blocked shots | 3.76 | 2.18–5.34 | 1.64–5.88 | 2.54 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.64–4.44 | 6.302.28–10.32 |
| Corners | 5.15 | 2.94–7.35 | 2.35–7.95 | 4.15 | 2.17–6.12 | 1.63–6.66 | 9.303.98–14.61 |
| Possession % | 48.50 | 42.18–54.82 | 40.59–56.41 | 51.40 | 45.08–57.72 | 43.48–59.31 | — |
| Passes | 404 | 339–470 | 321–487 | 438 | 373–503 | 356–520 | 842677–1007 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.54 | 67.32–75.75 | 66.02–77.05 | 67.43 | 62.93–71.94 | 61.60–73.27 | — |
| Fouls | 11.63 | 8.78–14.49 | 7.89–15.38 | 13.25 | 10.31–16.20 | 9.39–17.12 | 24.8917.28–32.49 |
| Offsides | 2.00 | 0.79–3.21 | 0.44–3.55 | 1.78 | 0.61–2.94 | 0.28–3.27 | 3.770.72–6.82 |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.47–3.13 | 2.25 | 1.13–3.37 | 0.84–3.66 | 4.051.31–6.79 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.14 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.00–0.48 | 0.190.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 2.07 | 0.66–3.49 | 0.27–3.88 | 2.84 | 1.29–4.40 | 0.86–4.83 | 4.911.12–8.70 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
25%
22%
Shots on target
64%
24%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
Corners
56%
31%
Fouls
34%
59%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
28%
18%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+