La Liga· Regular Season - 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.66 | 1.70–3.63 | 1.44–3.89 | 0.96 | 0.10–1.82 | 0.00–2.06 | 3.621.29–5.95 |
| Shots on target | 7.44 | 5.59–9.30 | 5.09–9.80 | 2.92 | 1.21–4.62 | 0.74–5.09 | 10.365.83–14.89 |
| Total shots | 18.76 | 15.06–22.47 | 14.03–23.50 | 8.21 | 4.83–11.59 | 3.90–12.52 | 26.9817.93–36.02 |
| Shots in box | 13.24 | 10.72–15.75 | 9.85–16.62 | 5.96 | 3.65–8.26 | 2.86–9.05 | 19.1912.71–25.67 |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 | 3.48–6.65 | 2.94–7.18 | 2.30 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.40–4.20 | 7.363.34–11.38 |
| Corners | 7.24 | 5.03–9.45 | 4.44–10.04 | 3.39 | 1.41–5.37 | 0.88–5.91 | 10.635.32–15.95 |
| Possession % | 61.26 | 54.94–67.58 | 53.35–69.18 | 39.64 | 33.32–45.96 | 31.73–47.56 | — |
| Passes | 602 | 537–668 | 519–685 | 418 | 354–483 | 336–500 | 1021855–1186 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.40 | 75.18–83.61 | 73.88–84.92 | 72.68 | 68.18–77.19 | 66.85–78.52 | — |
| Fouls | 9.70 | 6.84–12.55 | 5.95–13.44 | 11.30 | 8.36–14.25 | 7.44–15.17 | 21.0013.39–28.60 |
| Offsides | 2.08 | 0.87–3.29 | 0.52–3.63 | 2.17 | 1.01–3.33 | 0.68–3.67 | 4.251.20–7.29 |
| Yellow cards | 1.30 | 0.24–2.36 | 0.00–2.63 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 3.310.58–6.05 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.12 | 0.71–3.53 | 0.32–3.92 | 4.34 | 2.79–5.89 | 2.35–6.33 | 6.462.67–10.25 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
74%
15%
Shots on target
90%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
80%
Corners
85%
Fouls
32%
60%
Offsides
38%
20%
42%
Yellow cards
25%
22%
54%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
14%
75%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+