La Liga· Regular Season - 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.72 | 0.00–1.68 | 0.00–1.94 | 3.45 | 2.59–4.31 | 2.34–4.56 | 4.171.84–6.49 |
| Shots on target | 2.85 | 1.00–4.71 | 0.50–5.21 | 8.38 | 6.67–10.09 | 6.20–10.55 | 11.236.70–15.76 |
| Total shots | 7.18 | 3.48–10.89 | 2.45–11.92 | 20.14 | 16.76–23.52 | 15.83–24.45 | 27.3218.28–36.37 |
| Shots in box | 5.05 | 2.53–7.56 | 1.67–8.43 | 12.96 | 10.66–15.26 | 9.86–16.06 | 18.0111.53–24.49 |
| Blocked shots | 1.87 | 0.29–3.46 | 0.00–3.99 | 5.11 | 3.69–6.52 | 3.21–7.01 | 6.982.96–11.00 |
| Corners | 2.69 | 0.48–4.89 | 0.00–5.49 | 6.41 | 4.43–8.38 | 3.89–8.92 | 9.093.78–14.41 |
| Possession % | 28.31 | 21.99–34.63 | 20.40–36.23 | 70.64 | 64.32–76.96 | 62.72–78.56 | — |
| Passes | 330 | 264–395 | 247–413 | 774 | 709–839 | 692–856 | 1104939–1269 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.56 | 60.35–68.78 | 59.05–70.08 | 85.66 | 81.16–90.17 | 79.83–91.50 | — |
| Fouls | 10.64 | 7.78–13.49 | 6.89–14.38 | 8.75 | 5.81–11.70 | 4.89–12.62 | 19.3911.78–27.00 |
| Offsides | 3.60 | 2.39–4.81 | 2.04–5.15 | 2.33 | 1.16–3.49 | 0.83–3.82 | 5.922.87–8.97 |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 | 0.65–2.76 | 0.38–3.03 | 1.10 | 0.00–2.23 | 0.00–2.52 | 2.810.07–5.55 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 5.23 | 3.82–6.65 | 3.43–7.04 | 2.05 | 0.50–3.60 | 0.07–4.04 | 7.293.50–11.08 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
87%
Shots on target
94%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
85%
Corners
86%
Fouls
62%
29%
Offsides
62%
15%
23%
Yellow cards
51%
24%
25%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
84%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+