La Liga· Regular Season - 17· · Camp Nou· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.19 | 2.22–4.15 | 1.96–4.41 | 0.77 | 0.00–1.63 | 0.00–1.88 | 3.961.63–6.29 |
| Shots on target | 9.10 | 7.25–10.96 | 6.75–11.46 | 2.85 | 1.15–4.56 | 0.68–5.03 | 11.967.42–16.49 |
| Total shots | 21.04 | 17.33–24.74 | 16.30–25.77 | 6.71 | 3.33–10.09 | 2.40–11.02 | 27.7518.70–36.79 |
| Shots in box | 15.82 | 13.30–18.33 | 12.44–19.20 | 4.59 | 2.29–6.89 | 1.49–7.69 | 20.4113.93–26.88 |
| Blocked shots | 5.44 | 3.85–7.02 | 3.32–7.55 | 2.04 | 0.63–3.46 | 0.14–3.94 | 7.483.46–11.50 |
| Corners | 8.19 | 5.99–10.40 | 5.39–10.99 | 2.33 | 0.35–4.31 | 0.00–4.85 | 10.525.21–15.84 |
| Possession % | 70.73 | 64.42–77.05 | 62.82–78.65 | 29.74 | 23.42–36.06 | 21.82–37.66 | — |
| Passes | 754 | 689–819 | 671–837 | 316 | 252–381 | 234–398 | 1070905–1235 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.32 | 82.10–90.53 | 80.80–91.83 | 68.15 | 63.64–72.66 | 62.31–73.99 | — |
| Fouls | 7.71 | 4.85–10.57 | 3.97–11.45 | 11.22 | 8.27–14.17 | 7.36–15.08 | 18.9311.32–26.53 |
| Offsides | 2.14 | 0.93–3.35 | 0.58–3.69 | 3.38 | 2.22–4.54 | 1.88–4.87 | 5.522.47–8.57 |
| Yellow cards | 1.06 | 0.01–2.12 | 0.00–2.39 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 3.040.30–5.78 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.20 | 0.79–3.61 | 0.40–4.00 | 4.71 | 3.16–6.26 | 2.72–6.70 | 6.913.12–10.70 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
84%
Shots on target
96%
Total shots
100%
Shots in box
99%
Blocked shots
86%
Corners
96%
Fouls
18%
76%
Offsides
23%
15%
62%
Yellow cards
20%
22%
59%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
78%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+