La Liga· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.46–2.39 | 0.20–2.65 | 1.18 | 0.32–2.04 | 0.07–2.29 | 2.610.28–4.94 |
| Shots on target | 4.81 | 2.96–6.67 | 2.46–7.17 | 4.41 | 2.70–6.12 | 2.23–6.58 | 9.224.69–13.75 |
| Total shots | 14.02 | 10.31–17.72 | 9.28–18.75 | 12.14 | 8.76–15.52 | 7.83–16.45 | 26.1617.11–35.20 |
| Shots in box | 9.64 | 7.12–12.16 | 6.26–13.02 | 7.13 | 4.83–9.43 | 4.03–10.23 | 16.7710.29–23.25 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.96–5.12 | 1.42–5.66 | 3.11 | 1.70–4.53 | 1.21–5.01 | 6.652.63–10.67 |
| Corners | 5.14 | 2.94–7.35 | 2.34–7.94 | 4.51 | 2.53–6.49 | 1.99–7.03 | 9.654.33–14.97 |
| Possession % | 45.88 | 39.57–52.20 | 37.97–53.80 | 54.59 | 48.27–60.91 | 46.68–62.51 | — |
| Passes | 377 | 312–443 | 294–460 | 453 | 388–517 | 371–535 | 830665–995 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.73 | 65.51–73.94 | 64.21–75.24 | 70.79 | 66.28–75.29 | 64.95–76.62 | — |
| Fouls | 12.67 | 9.81–15.53 | 8.93–16.41 | 12.54 | 9.59–15.48 | 8.67–16.40 | 25.2017.60–32.81 |
| Offsides | 1.88 | 0.67–3.09 | 0.33–3.43 | 1.70 | 0.54–2.86 | 0.21–3.20 | 3.580.53–6.63 |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 | 1.15–3.26 | 0.88–3.53 | 2.38 | 1.26–3.50 | 0.97–3.79 | 4.591.85–7.33 |
| Red cards | 0.12 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.210.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.67 | 1.25–4.08 | 0.87–4.47 | 2.77 | 1.22–4.33 | 0.79–4.76 | 5.441.65–9.23 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
26%
31%
Shots on target
49%
13%
38%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
69%
23%
Blocked shots
49%
16%
36%
Corners
52%
36%
Fouls
47%
45%
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
40%
18%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+