La Liga· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.34 | 0.16–2.60 | 1.27 | 0.41–2.13 | 0.17–2.38 | 2.660.33–4.98 |
| Shots on target | 5.05 | 3.19–6.91 | 2.70–7.41 | 4.02 | 2.32–5.73 | 1.85–6.20 | 9.074.54–13.60 |
| Total shots | 14.53 | 10.82–18.23 | 9.79–19.26 | 12.53 | 9.15–15.91 | 8.22–16.84 | 27.0618.01–36.10 |
| Shots in box | 8.63 | 6.11–11.14 | 5.25–12.01 | 7.80 | 5.50–10.10 | 4.70–10.90 | 16.439.95–22.91 |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 | 2.38–5.55 | 1.85–6.08 | 3.57 | 2.15–4.98 | 1.66–5.47 | 7.533.51–11.55 |
| Corners | 5.68 | 3.48–7.89 | 2.88–8.48 | 5.20 | 3.22–7.17 | 2.68–7.71 | 10.885.56–16.19 |
| Possession % | 53.22 | 46.91–59.54 | 45.31–61.14 | 46.58 | 40.26–52.90 | 38.67–54.50 | — |
| Passes | 481 | 416–547 | 398–564 | 417 | 352–481 | 335–499 | 898733–1063 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.56 | 69.34–77.78 | 68.04–79.08 | 72.22 | 67.71–76.73 | 66.38–78.06 | — |
| Fouls | 9.62 | 6.76–12.47 | 5.87–13.36 | 12.32 | 9.38–15.27 | 8.46–16.19 | 21.9414.33–29.55 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.42 | 1.59 | 0.43–2.76 | 0.10–3.09 | 3.460.41–6.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.29–2.95 | 2.14 | 1.02–3.26 | 0.73–3.55 | 3.761.02–6.50 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.71 | 1.30–4.13 | 0.91–4.52 | 2.99 | 1.44–4.55 | 1.01–4.98 | 5.711.92–9.50 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
26%
34%
Shots on target
57%
30%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
53%
37%
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
Corners
50%
38%
Fouls
25%
68%
Offsides
44%
22%
33%
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+