La Liga· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 | 0.02–1.94 | 0.00–2.20 | 1.61 | 0.75–2.47 | 0.50–2.71 | 2.590.26–4.92 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.16–5.87 | 1.66–6.37 | 5.33 | 3.63–7.04 | 3.16–7.51 | 9.344.81–13.87 |
| Total shots | 11.58 | 7.88–15.28 | 6.85–16.31 | 14.94 | 11.57–18.32 | 10.64–19.25 | 26.5217.48–35.57 |
| Shots in box | 7.48 | 4.97–10.00 | 4.10–10.86 | 9.46 | 7.16–11.77 | 6.37–12.56 | 16.9510.47–23.43 |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 | 1.97–5.14 | 1.43–5.67 | 3.92 | 2.50–5.33 | 2.02–5.82 | 7.473.45–11.49 |
| Corners | 4.50 | 2.29–6.70 | 1.70–7.30 | 5.17 | 3.19–7.15 | 2.65–7.68 | 9.674.35–14.98 |
| Possession % | 41.07 | 34.75–47.39 | 33.16–48.98 | 58.13 | 51.81–64.45 | 50.22–66.05 | — |
| Passes | 356 | 290–421 | 273–439 | 516 | 452–581 | 434–598 | 872707–1037 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.06 | 61.84–70.27 | 60.54–71.57 | 75.10 | 70.59–79.60 | 69.26–80.93 | — |
| Fouls | 13.30 | 10.44–16.15 | 9.55–17.04 | 12.12 | 9.18–15.07 | 8.26–15.98 | 25.4217.81–33.02 |
| Offsides | 2.44 | 1.23–3.65 | 0.89–3.99 | 1.27 | 0.10–2.43 | 0.00–2.76 | 3.710.66–6.76 |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 | 1.25–3.36 | 0.98–3.63 | 1.87 | 0.75–2.99 | 0.46–3.28 | 4.171.43–6.91 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.50 | 2.09–4.92 | 1.70–5.31 | 2.70 | 1.15–4.25 | 0.71–4.69 | 6.202.41–9.99 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
25%
52%
Shots on target
27%
60%
Total shots
23%
71%
Shots in box
27%
64%
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
Corners
35%
52%
Fouls
55%
37%
Offsides
63%
18%
18%
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
55%
16%
30%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+