La Liga· Regular Season - 22· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.41 | 0.55–2.27 | 0.30–2.51 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.31 | 2.45–6.17 | 1.95–6.66 | 5.31 | 3.60–7.01 | 3.13–7.48 | 9.625.09–14.15 |
| Total shots | 12.33 | 8.63–16.03 | 7.59–17.06 | 14.05 | 10.67–17.43 | 9.74–18.36 | 26.3817.33–35.42 |
| Shots in box | 8.57 | 6.05–11.08 | 5.19–11.95 | 8.55 | 6.25–10.85 | 5.45–11.65 | 17.1210.64–23.60 |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 | 1.80–4.97 | 1.27–5.50 | 3.67 | 2.26–5.09 | 1.77–5.57 | 7.063.04–11.08 |
| Corners | 4.48 | 2.27–6.68 | 1.68–7.28 | 4.97 | 2.99–6.95 | 2.45–7.49 | 9.454.13–14.76 |
| Possession % | 44.16 | 37.85–50.48 | 36.25–52.08 | 56.44 | 50.12–62.76 | 48.53–64.36 | — |
| Passes | 419 | 354–484 | 336–502 | 510 | 446–575 | 428–593 | 929764–1094 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.70 | 68.48–76.91 | 67.18–78.22 | 74.10 | 69.59–78.61 | 68.26–79.94 | — |
| Fouls | 11.68 | 8.82–14.53 | 7.94–15.42 | 11.87 | 8.92–14.81 | 8.00–15.73 | 23.5415.94–31.15 |
| Offsides | 1.61 | 0.40–2.82 | 0.05–3.16 | 1.93 | 0.77–3.09 | 0.43–3.42 | 3.540.49–6.58 |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 | 0.68–2.79 | 0.41–3.07 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.710.97–6.45 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.29 | 1.87–4.70 | 1.48–5.09 | 2.70 | 1.15–4.26 | 0.72–4.69 | 5.992.20–9.78 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
26%
42%
Shots on target
31%
56%
Total shots
33%
59%
Shots in box
45%
45%
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
Corners
37%
13%
50%
Fouls
44%
47%
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+